Page 20 - Farm and Food Policy Strategies for 2040 Series

The need for new research and innovation is a message the current Secretary of Agriculture has
also embraced as he looks ahead to the future.

“As a former farmer, agribusinessman, veterinarian, state legislator, and governor – I have
always appreciated the value of ag research. Research is an essential tool that allows
America’s agriculture and agribusiness sector to create jobs, to produce and sell the foods and
fiber that feed and clothe the world, and to reap the earned reward of their labor,” noted
Secretary Sonny Perdue.

Of course, making changes in agriculture – whether it’s a move to new types of crops, a
transition to organic farming or new alternatives like urban farming – isn’t usually cheap or easy.

But, if Agri-Pulse interviews with six trailblazing farmers in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Montana,
North Dakota and Washington are any indications, we can expect larger-scale conventional
farming by 2040 along with more diversification into new geographic areas along with organic
production and more nonconventional approaches like soil-less urban farming.

The six farmers – Allen Williams, Bruce
Rastetter, Tim Raile, Doug Crabtree, Gregg
Halverson and Dan Albert – all have prepared
well in their respective ways, so that their
operations can prosper in 2040 and beyond.

The conventional farmers, who are focusing
on economies of scale, market-driven
diversification, and incorporating the latest
technology, expect to significantly expand
their production, efficiency, yields and
profitability by 2040.

The urban growers expect their high-tech
rooftop, warehouse, basement, high-rise tower,
or soil-less shipping-container farms to profit from rapidly increasing demand for fresh produce
often grown within a few city blocks from the end-consumer sitting at home or in a restaurant.

The organic producers expect that their production methods will be key to reducing inputs,
limiting market volatility, improving environmental performance and sustainability, and
increasing their net profit. They also expect that over the next 20 years, a growing number of
farmers will make the shift from lower-margin, chemical-intensive conventional production to
organic and other innovative practices.

The six farmers, along with the other stakeholders we interviewed about what’s ahead for
agriculture in 2040, converged on a single point – they say the best way to cope with a soaring
global population and an increasing demand for better diets and more meat is through
diversification.

“Traditional producers need to be merchants who keenly analyze customer demand and develop
markets and logistics to satisfy what the customer wants – not what we think they need because

18 www.Agri-Pulse.com