Page 40 - Farm and Food Policy Strategies for 2040 Series

In short, U.S. agriculture could find it difficult to offset the decreased supply of farm labor from
Mexico with workers from other countries, for the following reasons, ERS notes:

• The United States will have to compete with Mexico and other countries in the Americas
that are also expanding agricultural production and recruiting farmworkers.

• Recruiting from countries more distant than Mexico may be costlier.
• Many of the factors that pull Mexicans out of farm work—such as rising education levels

and a growing service economy—are also at play in other developing countries.

A combination of solutions likely

Most likely a combination of factors will need to play out to keep U.S. farms operating. “If the
government lets more people into the country, it might slow the rate of robotic development, but
they can’t let enough people in to solve the problem,” Bissett says. “The bodies just aren’t
there.”

Short-term, an expanded agricultural guest worker program could help U.S. farmers compete
with Mexican farms to attract workers.

“However—given the apparent long-term decline in the U.S. farm labor supply and the various
structural changes occurring in the Mexican economy—investments in less labor-intensive
technologies, more efficient labor management practices, and a move away from the most labor-
intensive crops may be more viable long-run strategies for U.S. agricultural employers,” ERS
concludes.

Who will be the farmer of the future?

by Sara Wyant

For decades, policymakers have tried to ensure that small and medium-sized farms have a chance
to not only survive, but thrive. Yet, with labor, financial and other challenges, farms have
continued to consolidate in the U.S. with 15% of the crop farms controlling 80% of the output.

Why have farms in the middle continued to decline in number? New research indicates that some
of the most important indicators of farm financial success may not be the size of the farm, but the
personality type, skill sets and ambition of the operator.

Over the last year, Aimpoint Research has worked to identify who will be the farmer of the
future by analyzing industry trends, in-depth surveys back to 2002, in-person farmer focus
groups, psychographic and attitudinal feedback and wargaming exercises.

“As the agriculture industry continues to transform, we set out to answer two very important
questions with our research. Who are farmers of the future and what will they require of us?”
explains Brett Sciotto, CEO of Aimpoint Research, a global marketing research and competitive
intelligence firm.

38 www.Agri-Pulse.com