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integrating language models into their businesses.

                                                                 Multimodal AI is notably being developed or is already in use
                                                                 in sectors including:
                                                                 •   Healthcare: where medical imaging can be combined with
                                                                    patient history and lab results to improve diagnosis and
                                                                    treatment, for example, by systems developed by Merative
                                                                    (formerly part of IBM Watson Health) and Bayer (see AI In
                                                                    Healthcare: A Path To Long-Term Immunity? June 25, 2024)

                                                                 •   Automotive: where inputs, including from cameras, GPS,
                                                                    and LiDAR, are being combined to improve autonomous
                                                                    driving, emergency response, and navigation systems at
                                                                    companies including Waymo and Li Auto.
                                                                 •   Finance: where multimodal AI is being applied to analyze
                                                                    customers' phone queries to support contact center
                                                                    employees' response and resolution activities.
         the growth in AI are already being felt across a host of sectors--  •   Retailing: where the combination of visual images, product
         notably those with exposure to the surge in demand for data   reviews, product information, customer interaction data,
         center capacity, including real estate companies, the power and   and warehouse data is used to optimize marketing
         utilities sector, and midstream gas suppliers (see Data Centers:   campaigns, inventory management, and minimize
         Rapid Growth Creates Opportunities And Issues, Oct. 30, 2024).   packaging and shipping costs. Amazon, for example, uses its
                                                                    "Just Walk Out" multimodal AI to enable checkout-less
         AI's increasing applications will also entangle the systems in
                                                                    shopping at its physical stores.
         which it operates, with the potential for effects to reach far
         beyond the immediate users. That possibility is perhaps most   Edge AI, which moves AI computation to end users' machines.
         evident in the financial sector, where the adoption of AI   Though not a new concept, we expect that the increasing use of
         exacerbates the risk of operational disruption leading to   small language models (SLMs) by companies will support the
         systemic instability that could have wide-ranging implications   scalability of edge AI. That shift offers numerous advantages,
         (see Your Three Minutes In AI: Financial Systems Will Face New   including, notably, a reduced risk of mass outages associated
         Systemic Risks, Oct. 4, 2024).                         with failures at major infrastructure or technology providers--
                                                                known as centralization risk. The combination of SLMs with
         Those risks could be mitigated through effective governance,   crypto technologies should further mitigate centralization risk,
         regulation, and decentralization (see section on "edge AI,"
         below). Yet the pace of development in AI and its expanding use   paving the way for more secure and decentralized computing
                                                                and data storage (see AI & DeFi: Can Crypto Innovations Offset
         exposes such efforts to the challenges of containing not only
                                                                Artificial Intelligence Concentration Risks, Dec. 4, 2025). And
         existing and potential risks but also to uncovering unrecognized   because SLMs at the edge require less computational power,
         risks (a variation on the "Rumsfeld matrix" of known knowns,   they will also offer energy efficiency advantages compared to
         known unknowns, and unknown unknowns). Predicting risk is   data and resource-hungry LLMs (see Can AI become net positive
         core to our efforts to understand the evolution of AI's effects on
                                                                for net-zero? Nov. 14, 2024). However, meaningful application
         organizational credit quality and will continue to drive our
                                                                of scalable edge AI will have to overcome the sizable challenge
         research (see Crypto and AI: Shaping The Future Of The   of ensuring that nascent technologies make their way from the
         Internet, Oct. 1, 2024).
                                                                lab to the field and are deployed in sufficient numbers to be
         What we will be watching in 2025                       impactful.
         Over 80% of organizations forecast their AI workflows will
                                                                Causal AI, which can reason and make choices like humans do,
         increase in the next two years, while about two-thirds expect
                                                                uses causal inference to fundamentally understand why
         pressure to upgrade IT infrastructure (see Generative AI: From   processes and decisions are made. This goes beyond the pattern
         Hype To Value, Nov. 25, 2024). The breadth and nuance of AI's   recognition and correlation that underpins much of the current
         development, its effects (and potential), are evident in the slate
                                                                ability of AI (particularly discriminative AI and generative AI).
         of subjects that we have tasked ourselves to explore over 2025.
                                                                We expect that capability will become increasingly important
         They include: Multimodal AI, which facilitates more human-like   with increased AI adoption and the corresponding demand for
         applications of generative AI models by enabling the integration   data (both real and synthetic), as a means to identify true
         and processing of diverse inputs such as images, audio, text,   causality from spurious correlations. It should also enable AI
         and video. The technology has gained traction in 2024 after
                                                                models to deliver more reliable query responses, make more
         OpenAI included the functionality in its models, Meta released a
                                                                informed decisions, and potentially aid in the discovery of
         multimodal version of its LLaMA model, and NVIDIA launched
                                                                underlying causes--which could prove a powerful tool across
         an open-source multimodal foundation model (NVLM 1.0). We   sectors including healthcare and finance. Causal AI is generally
         expect this technology will gradually gain relevance in industrial   regarded as one of the missing links to create artificial general
         applications, particularly for companies that are already
                                                                intelligence (which matches or outperforms human cognitive

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