Page 26 - SA Chamber UK February Newsletter. 2024

BARCLAYS INTERNATIONAL

BANKING

CAN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY DEFY THE GLOOM?

Financial markets are currently
enjoying something of an upbeat
mood. However, will this optimism

persist given potential geopolitical
flashpoints, slower-than-expected
rate cuts and upcoming US elections?

After much debate over whether
there would be a soft or hard

landing, several economic data
releases towards the end of 2023
and in January have created a more
optimistic growth outlook, and a more
benign inflationary backdrop, at least
for now. That said, prospects are far
from uniform across the world.

The US keeps on giving

Economists have been compelled to revise higher their growth forecast for most
leading economies in 2024. The combination of resilient consumption and a resilient
job market has once again defied expectations. At some point, the US consumer will
run out of excess savings and consumption will likely stall, but so far higher real wages
and low unemployment have softened the blow. While growth may end up higher than
anticipated at the start of 2024, a significant economic slowdown appears to be on the
cards this year.

Europe stuck in a rut
On the other side of the Atlantic, both the UK and the eurozone economies remain

stuck in first gear, and show little sign of accelerating from last year’s doldrums. With

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SA CHAMBER UK NEWSLETTER FEBRUARY 2024