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Expert Comment

Demographic dividend

opportunity & illusion

RAHUL SINGH

OW IT’S OFFICIAL. ON JULY 1, INDIA WILL Suddenly our huge population is
overtake China as the world’s most populous na-
tion. Though this was expected for some time, a expected to yield a “demographic
Nrecent report by the authoritative United Nations dividend” that will enable us to catch up
Population Fund (UNFPA) has proclaimed the exact fig-
ures. On July 1, India’s population is expected to be 1.429 with China and the US and transform
billion, cf. China’s 1.426 billion. India into a global economic power
While a few decades ago India’s rising population was
a cause for despair, now in a remarkable turnaround, it is
considered a national asset in government circles. Suddenly were allocated for setting up institutes of higher learning.
our huge population is expected to yield a “demographic Primary education and basic healthcare were neglected.
dividend” and the “world’s largest workforce” will enable Hence, India’s family planning programme was a non-start-
us to catch up with China and the US and transform India er. Ham-handed and authoritarian attempts, like Sanjay
into a global economic power. But the ground-level reality Gandhi’s compulsory sterilisation programme during the
is entirely different. Emergency (1975-77) made matters worse. After that, no
Unless India gets certain developmental parameters government wanted to pursue family planning seriously.
right — and that’s a big if — the demographic dividend Admittedly, India’s population growth rate has slowed
may transform into a disaster. The tart Chinese reaction down in the last few years. But this is due to the forces of
to UNFPA’s population report is telling. Size matters, said modernisation, not government efforts.
Beijing, but a “quality workforce” matters more. “Nearly So, what of the trumpeted demographic dividend that
900 million of the 1.4 billion Chinese are of working age, India should start earning from the 970 million Indians
and on average have received 10.9 years of education,” a aged 15-64? The problem is that an overwhelming majority
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman lectured. “For those of them are so poorly educated that they find it difficult to
who have newly entered the workforce, their average length get jobs, even unskilled ones. Most of them are the prod-
of education has risen to 14 years.” Against this, the mean ucts of ill-managed government schools and sub-standard
schooling years of Indians over age 25 is a mere 6.7 years universities. Last year, the Centre admitted in Parliament
(after the Covid pandemic), and the quality of education is that between 2014-2022 just 700,000 government jobs had
relatively poor. been given to 220 million applicants!
About three decades ago, the UNFPA commissioned this he insatiable appetite for sarkari employment by even
writer to bring out a book on developing countries whose Thighly educated persons, down to the lowest level of
family planning programmes had been successful. That was peon, speaks for itself. This certainly isn’t the “high-caliber
the time when there was worldwide concern over the “popu- workforce” that China claims it has.
lation explosion”. The Indian sub-continent (India, Paki- Perhaps more disturbing is a recent report in the In-
stan and Bangladesh), most of Africa and Latin America, dian Express, showing that the number of Indian students
were averaging around three percent annual population taking the Graduate Record Examination (GRE) doubled
growth rates, and women were having four-five children. between 2012-13 and 2021-22. GRE is a gateway exam for
However, some developing countries, realising the dan- post-graduate programmes in the US, though higher educa-
ger to their economic development, had started to get their tion institutes in the UK, Canada, Australia and Ireland also
act together. China did it by compulsion, with its draconian accept GRE scores. Most Indian students who study abroad
“one-child” policy (abandoned six years ago, as the problem stay there, contributing to the continuous brain drain. We
of an ageing population loomed). Others by persuasion, and take great pride in the achievements of the Indian diaspora
providing modern forms of contraception. like Sundar Pichai of Google and Microsoft’s Satya Nadella,
But two factors were common to all the successful coun- whereas these superstar achievers, along with others living
tries: the importance of providing primary education and and working abroad, should have been contributing their
basic healthcare to the entire population. Mao Zedong, skills in India.
now reviled for his megalomania and massive blunders like With India becoming the world’s most populous nation,
the Cultural Revolution, at least got that right, and uni- the much-anticipated demographic advantage will yield
versalised literacy and basic healthcare. Several develop- results only when the dysfunctional education system is
ing countries notably Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, completely overhauled, so as to produce a high quality
Taiwan, South Korea also got it right — and reaped the de- workforce, like China’s. Till then, the demographic dividend
mographic dividend. will remain an illusion.
Sadly, India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, (Rahul Singh is the author of Family Planning Success Stories: Asia,
got it wrong. Most of the government’s funds for education Africa, Latin America and former editor of Reader’s Digest)

32 EDUCATIONWORLD MAY 2023