Page 10 - September 2018 Disruption Report Flip Book

DISRUPTION OF TRANSPORTATION SEJAPNTEUMARBYER20210818
The future of transportation: autonomous vehicle networks
Citi GPS’ U.S. auto analyst Itay Michaeli wrote:
We believe the looming era of driverless cars will transition the ‘car’ from a consumer product towards more of a network — a network you can access on demand or as a subscriber. To be sure, this disruption won’t necessarily affect every type of car (pickups and large vans are less affected) or every region (rural and snowier regions are less affected), but it will likely redefine large parts of the automotive market, as well as related non-automotive verticals.
...At the end of this transformation, we think the auto market will be characterized by:
1. RoboTaxi driverless car services (mobility-on-demand, or rideshares) operating mainly in urban and some urban/suburban markets. These are dedicated fleets similar to Uber today but utilizing driverless cars.
2. AV Subscriptions, i.e., driverless-capable cars that one subscribes to combining the best attributes of personal ownership with the benefits of AVs,
3. Traditional ownership in certain segments and regions (pickups, commercial vehicles). These traditionally-owned vehicles can still have AV features sold as standalone options, even if they are ‘off the network.’
...We see this [transformation] occurring in a number of stages:
Stage 1 (2018+) - RoboTaxi AV as a Network (urban/suburban): A ‘RoboTaxi’ can
be defined as a fleet of driverless vehicles operating rideshare (taxi) services in a
particular area, mainly cities and surrounding suburbs. We expect RoboTaxis to begin
U.S. commercialization in 2018–19, led by Waymo and GM. The race to launch and commercialize RoboTaxis is all about building a powerful network effect. This network effect is determined by who can introduce and effectively scale safe, reliable, fast, and low- cost urban RoboTaxi AV fleets. ...Key U.S. players in this race include Waymo, GM, and Uber. And as noted, the stakes go far beyond the ~$900 billion revenue pool — the network effect described above could lead to a few regional winners-take-all outcomes.
Stage 2 (2021+) - AV Standalone Features (highway first): Around 2020–21, we expect to see more AV (level 3+) driving features sold as options similar to how many options
are sold today in cars (including through greater use of over-the-air (OTA) updates). Full
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