Page 29 - bon-dia-aruba-20210810

A29
world news Diamars 10 augustus 2021

'Code red': UN scientists warn of worsening global warming

Earth is getting so hot that grees Celsius (3.6 degrees mid-century, said report co- ably going to be painful, but tury, Kopp said.
temperatures in about a Fahrenheit) over pre-indus- author Bob Kopp of Rutgers it’s better not to give up.”
decade will probably blow trial times — the less strin- University. A “major advance” in the un-
past a level of warming gent Paris goal — with far In the report’s worst-case derstanding of how fast the
that world leaders have worse heat waves, droughts Scientists have issued this scenario, the world could world warms with each ton
sought to prevent, accord- and flood-inducing down- message for more than three be around 3.3 degrees Cel- of carbon dioxide emitted
ing to a report released pours unless there are deep decades, but the world hasn’t sius (5.9 degrees Fahrenheit) allowed scientists to be far
Monday that the United emissions cuts, the report listened, said United Nations hotter than now by the end more precise in the scenarios
Nations called a “code red said. Environment Program Ex- of the century. But that sce- in this report, Mason-Del-
for humanity.” ecutive Director Inger An- nario looks increasingly un- motte said.
“This report tells us that re- dersen. likely, said report co-author
“It’s just guaranteed that it’s cent changes in the climate and climate scientist Zeke In a new move, scientists
going to get worse,” said re- are widespread, rapid and For the first time, the report Hausfather, climate change emphasized how cutting air-
port co-author Linda Mearns, intensifying, unprecedented offers an interactive atlas for director of the Breakthrough borne levels of methane —
a senior climate scientist at in thousands of years,” said people to see what has hap- Institute. a powerful but short-lived
the U.S. National Center IPCC Vice Chair Ko Barrett, pened and may happen to gas that has soared to record
for Atmospheric Research. senior climate adviser for the where they live. “We are a lot less likely to get levels — could help curb
“Nowhere to run, nowhere U.S. National Oceanic and lucky and end up with less short-term warming. Lots
to hide.” Atmospheric Administration. Nearly all of the warming warming than we thought,” of methane the atmosphere
that has happened on Earth Hausfather said. “At the same comes from leaks of natural
But scientists also eased back With crucial international can be blamed on emissions time, the odds of ending up gas, a major power source.
a bit on the likelihood of the climate negotiations coming of heat-trapping gases such in a much worse place than Livestock also produces large
absolute worst climate catas- up in Scotland in November, as carbon dioxide and meth- we expected if we do reduce amounts of the gas, a good
trophes. world leaders said the report ane. At most, natural forces our emissions are notably chunk of it in cattle burps.
is causing them to try harder or simple randomness can lower.”
The authoritative Intergov- to cut carbon pollution. U.S. explain one- or two-tenths of More than 100 countries
ernmental Panel on Climate Secretary of State Anthony a degree of warming, the re- The report also said ultra- have made informal pledges
Change (IPCC) report, Blinken called it “a stark re- port said. catastrophic disasters — to achieve “net zero” hu-
which calls climate change minder.” The report described five dif- commonly called “tipping man-caused carbon dioxide
clearly human-caused and ferent future scenarios based points,” like ice sheet collaps- emissions sometime around
“unequivocal” and “an es- The 3,000-plus-page re- on how much the world es and the abrupt slowdown mid-century, which will be
tablished fact,” makes more port from 234 scientists said reduces carbon emissions. of ocean currents — are “low a key part of the negotiations
precise and warmer forecasts warming is already accelerat- They are: a future with in- likelihood” but cannot be in Scotland. The report said
for the 21st century than it ing sea level rise and wors- credibly large and quick pol- ruled out. The much talked- those commitments are es-
did last time it was issued in ening extremes such as heat lution cuts; another with in- about shutdown of Atlantic sential.
2013. waves, droughts, floods and tense pollution cuts but not ocean currents, which would
storms. Tropical cyclones are quite as massive; a scenario trigger massive weather “It is still possible to forestall
Each of five scenarios for getting stronger and wetter, with moderate emission cuts; shifts, is something that’s un- many of the most dire im-
the future, based on how while Arctic sea ice is dwin- a fourth scenario where cur- likely to happen in this cen- pacts,” Barrett said.
much carbon emissions are dling in the summer and rent plans to make small pol-
cut, passes the more strin- permafrost is thawing. All of lution reductions continue;
gent of two thresholds set in these trends will get worse, and a fifth possible future in-
the 2015 Paris climate agree- the report said. volving continued increases
ment. World leaders agreed in carbon pollution.
then to try to limit warming For example, the kind of heat
to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 wave that used to happen In five previous reports, the
degrees Fahrenheit) above only once every 50 years now world was on that final hot-
levels in the late 19th century happens once a decade, and test path, often nicknamed
because problems mount if the world warms another “business as usual.” But this
quickly after that. The world degree Celsius (1.8 degrees time, the world is some-
has already warmed nearly Fahrenheit), it will happen where between the moderate
1.1 degrees Celsius (2 de- twice every seven years, the path and the small pollution
grees Fahrenheit) since then. report said. reductions scenario because
of progress to curb climate
Under each scenario, the As the planet warms, places change, said report co-author
report said, the world will will get hit more not just Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at
cross the 1.5-degree-Celsius by extreme weather but by the U.S. Pacific Northwest
warming mark in the 2030s, multiple climate disasters at National Lab.
earlier than some past predic- once, the report said. That’s
tions. Warming has ramped like what’s now happening in While calling the report “a
up in recent years, data the Western U.S., where heat code red for humanity,” U.N.
shows. waves, drought and wild- Secretary-General Antonio
fires compound the damage, Guterres kept a sliver of hope
“Our report shows that we Mearns said. Extreme heat is that world leaders could still
need to be prepared for going also driving massive fires in somehow prevent 1.5 degrees
into that level of warming in Greece and Turkey. of warming, which he said is
the coming decades. But we “perilously close.”
can avoid further levels of Some harm from climate
warming by acting on green- change — dwindling ice Alok Sharma, the president
house gas emissions,” said sheets, rising sea levels and of the upcoming climate ne-
report co-chair Valerie Mas- changes in the oceans as they gotiations in Scotland, urged
son-Delmotte, a climate sci- lose oxygen and become leaders to do more so they
entist at France’s Laboratory more acidic — is “irrevers- can “credibly say that we have
of Climate and Environment ible for centuries to millen- kept 1.5 degrees alive.”
Sciences at the University of nia,” the report said.
Paris-Saclay. “Anything we can do to limit,
The world is “locked in” to to slow down, is going to pay
In three scenarios, the world 15 to 30 centimeters (6 to 12 off,” Tebaldi said. “And if we
will also likely exceed 2 de- inches) of sea level rise by cannot get to 1.5, it’s prob-