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SPORTS Monday 14 SepteMber 2020

Q&A: La Nina may bring more Atlantic storms, western drought

BY SETH BORENSTEIN Atlantic often do not get
AP Science Writer blockbuster snowstorms in
La Nina — which often La Nina winters.
means a busier Atlantic Overall, winter should be
hurricane season, a drier cooler than last year, but
Southwest and perhaps a "last winter was so warm it
more fire-prone California would be hard not to be
— has popped up in the cooler than last winter,"
Pacific Ocean. Halpert said.
The National Oceanic and WHICH IS WORSE, LA NINA
Atmospheric Administra- OR EL NINO?
tion announced Thursday That really depends on
that a La Nina, the cooler where you are. Some ar-
flip side of the better known eas do better in La Nina,
El Nino, has formed. Meteo- some places to better in El
rologists had been watch- Nino, and others do best in
ing it brewing for months. a neutral ENSO, said Texas
A natural cooling of certain A&M University agricultural
parts of the equatorial Pa- economist Bruce McCarl,
cific, La Nina sets in motion who studies ENSO effects.
a series of changes to the Places like Texas and the
world's weather that can Southwest do much worse
last months, even years. This in La Ninas, McCarl said,
one so far is fairly weak and pointing to a 2011 La Nina
is projected to last through when 40% of the cotton
at least February but may crop in the high plains was
not be the two-to-three- too small to be harvested.
year type sometimes seen A 1999 study by McCarl
in the past, NOAA Climate said that, in general, La
Prediction Center Deputy Ninas cause $2.2 billion to
Director Mike Halpert said. $6.5 billion in agricultural
The changes that happen damage, far more than El
during La Ninas and El Ninos Nino. A neutral ENSO is best
— which along with neu- for agriculture, the study
tral conditions are called El found.
Nino Southern Oscillation or WHAT ABOUT LA NINA IM-
ENSO — aren't sure things, PACTS OUTSIDE THE CONTI-
meteorologists say. Differ- NENTAL UNITED STATES?
ent sizes and types trigger Western Canada, southern
varying effects and some Alaska, Japan, the Korean
years the usual impacts just Peninsula, southeastern
don't show up. Brazil and western Africa
It's more an increased ten- tend to be cooler. East
dency than an environ- In this Aug. 1, 2020, file photo, a firefighter watches a brush fire at the Apple Fire in Cherry Valley, central Africa and south-
mental edict. Calif. eastern China tend to be
Still, when it comes to sea- Associated Press drier. Northern Australia
sonal forecasts in places and much of Southeast
like California, if meteo- McNoldy said. An El Nino means a drier winter in the ed that it's mostly a poten- Asia tends to be wetter,
rologists can get only one means more strong cross- South and Southwest from tial bad sign for next year's along with northeastern
piece of information, they winds that can decapitate coast to coast. It usually wildfire season because it South America. And south-
would want the ENSO sta- storms, but a La Nina means means a bit warmer in the makes California's winter east Africa tends to be wet-
tus, Stanford University cli- fewer, allowing storms to South, too. It gets wetter in wet season drier, setting ter and cooler.
mate scientist Noah Diffen- grow. the Pacific Northwest and the stage for dry conditions WHEN WERE THE LAST LA
baugh said. Thursday is the historical the Ohio Valley in the win- when fires start in 2021. NINA AND EL NINO?
WHAT DOES LA NINA MEAN peak of hurricane season ter and colder in the North- Meteorologists don't quite The last La Nina went from
FOR THE ATLANTIC HURRI- and the Atlantic is incred- ern tier in the winter. know enough about what fall 2017 to early spring
CANE SEASON? ibly active. In addition to WHAT ABOUT THE DROUGHT La Nina does in the fall to 2018. Before that there was
This is one of the clearest Tropical Storms Paulette IN THE WEST? say what it means for the a brief La Nina at the end
connections that meteo- and Rene, which set re- Drought's already pretty current record bad Cali- of 2016, coming on the
rologists follow. A La Nina cords for the earliest 16th bad in west Texas, Arizona, fornia wildfire season, ac- heels of a super-sized El
usually means a more ac- and 17th named storms, Utah and Colorado, Halp- cording to Diffenbaugh. He Nino. This year started with
tive season with more and forecasters are monitoring ert said. This could make said that, for the next few a brief, weak El Nino.
perhaps stronger storms. An four other disturbances — things worse. And Cali- months, what matters most WHAT DOES LA NINA MEAN?
El Nino means fewer, weak- two near the United States fornia has "a tendency to is when the fall rains begin It is Spanish for "little girl"
er storms. — that could develop into have dry conditions in La and offshore winds, not La and El Nino means "little
That's because one of the named storms in the next Nina years," Diffenbaugh Nina. boy," at times referring to
key ingredients for storm five days. said. WHAT ABOUT WINTER SNOW the Christ child. The name
formation and strengthen- HOW DOES LA NINA AFFECT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR POSSIBILITIES? comes from the first El Nino
ing is what's happening to U.S. WEATHER IN GENERAL? WILDFIRES? La Nina has a tendency being characterized and
the winds near the tops of The jet stream that steers "La Nina is not a good sign to shift snow storms more identified around Christ-
storms, University of Miami daily weather shifts a bit in for the wildfire outlook," Dif- northerly in winter, Halpert mas by fishermen in South
hurricane researcher Brian the winter. That generally fenbaugh said. But he add- said. Places like the mid- America.q