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Thursday 12 July 2018
U.S. soon to leapfrog Saudis, Russia as top oil producer

By DAVID KOENIG Soviet output was nearly
AP Business Writer double that of the U.S.
The U.S. is on pace to The last decade or so
leapfrog both Saudi Arabia has seen a revolution
and Russia and reclaim the in American energy
title of the world’s biggest production, however, led
oil producer for the first by techniques including
time since the 1970s. hydraulic fracturing, or
The latest forecast from fracking, and horizontal
the U.S. Energy Information drilling.
Administration predicts that Those innovations — and
U.S. output will grow next the breakup of the Soviet
year to 11.8 million barrels Union — helped the U.S.
a day. narrow the gap. Last year,
“If the forecast holds, that Russia produced more
would make the U.S. the than 10.3 million barrels
world’s leading producer a day, Saudi Arabia
of crude,” says Linda pumped just under 10
Capuano, who heads million, and the U.S. came
the agency, a part of the in under 9.4 million barrels
Energy Department. a day, according to U.S.
Saudi Arabia and Russia government figures.
could upend that forecast The U.S. has been pumping
by boosting their own In this June 8, 2017, file photo, oil derricks are busy pumping as the moon rises near the La Paloma more than 10 million barrels
production. In the face Generating Station in McKittrick, Calif. a day on average since
of rising global oil prices, Associated Press February, and probably
members of the OPEC pumped about 10.9 million
cartel and a few non- barrels a day in June, up
members including Russia from 10.8 million in May,
agreed last month to ease the energy agency said
production caps that had Tuesday in its latest short-
contributed to the run-up term outlook.
in prices. Capuano’s agency
President Donald Trump forecast that U.S. crude
has urged the Saudis to output will average 10.8
pump more oil to contain million barrels a day for all
rising prices. He tweeted of 2018 and 11.8 million
on June 30 that King barrels a day in 2019. The
Salman agreed to boost current U.S. record for a full
production “maybe up year is 9.6 million barrels a
to 2,000,000 barrels.” The day in 1970.
White House later clarified The trend of rising U.S.
that the king said his output prompted Fatih
country has a reserve of 2 Birol, executive director of
million barrels a day that the International Energy
could be tapped “if and Agency, to predict this
when necessary.” spring that the U.S. would
“A decade ago the only leapfrog Russia and
question was how fast become the world’s largest
would U.S. production go producer by next year — if
down,” said Daniel Yergin, not sooner.
author of several books One potential obstacle for
about the oil industry U.S. drillers is a bottleneck
including a history, “The of pipeline capacity to ship
Prize.” The rebound of U.S. oil from the Permian Basin
output “has made a huge of Texas and New Mexico
difference. If this had not to ports and refineries.
happened, we would have “They are growing the
had a severe shortage of production but they can’t
world oil,” he said. get it out of the area
The United States led the fast enough because
world in oil production for of pipeline constraints,”
much of the 20th century, said Jim Rittersbusch, a
but the Soviet Union consultant to oil traders.
surpassed America in 1974, Some analysts believe that
and Saudi Arabia did the Permian production could
same in 1976, according to decline, or at least grow
Energy Department figures. more slowly, in 2019 or
By the end of the 1970s the 2020 as energy companies
USSR was producing one- move from their best
third more oil than the U.S.; acreage to more marginal
by the end of the 1980s, areas.q