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U.S. NEWS Tuesday 16 January 2018

Dems aim for, and GOP worries about, midterm election wave

By KEVIN FREKING legislative elections across Even House Speaker Paul run again. Altogether, 31 that covers nearly all the
BILL BARROW the country, reclaimed the Ryan concedes that his House Republicans have GOP vacancies — and
Associated Press Virginia governor’s seat by party may have to “buck announced their retire- they say they have “viable”
WASHINGTON (AP) — candidates in 87 of those
Buoyed by a string of Re- districts.
publican retirements and Since World War II, the
President Donald Trump’s president’s party has nev-
persistently low approval er gained seats when the
rating, Democrats are in- president’s job approval
creasingly hopeful about rating is below 50 percent,
their chances for a mid- a threshold Trump has yet
term election wave that to reach. Gallup polling of
would give them control the presidents’ approval
of the House and deliver a rating in the week before
blow to the president. midterm elections offers
The number of Republicans some guidance.
bowing out rather than Barack Obama watched
bearing down for tough Democrats lose 63 seats in
races is the latest worri- 2010 with a 45 percent rat-
some sign for the GOP. ing; Bill Clinton lost 53 seats
Combine that with Trump’s at 46 percent in 1994; and
ability to unite Democrats Ronald Reagan lost 28
in opposition and histori- seats at 42 percent in 1982.
cal headwinds, and some Jimmy Carter managed
Democrats are optimistic. the narrowest losses in 1978,
“We don’t have an Obama losing 11 seats with a 49
figure energizing us; we percent approval rating.
have Trump energizing us,” In this Dec. 22, 2017, file photo, the U.S. Capitol is seen in the early morning in Washington. Buoyed “The real question is how
said Democratic Rep. Ger- by a string of Republican retirements and President Donald Trump’s persistently low approval many seats the president’s
ald Connolly of Virginia, rating, Democrats are increasingly hopeful about their chances for a midterm election wave that party loses,” Ayres said,
would give them control of the House and could deliver a shattering blow to the president.
as he described standing- (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) and whether Ryan can
room-only gatherings at “limit the damage.”
local Democratic events. Republicans find comfort
“Who is the D? Show me a surprising 9-percentage- history” for him to keep his ments so far, ahead of a in district lines that GOP-run
who the D is, so I can vote point margin and man- job, though he maintains typical election-year pace legislatures drew after 2010.
for them,” he said of vot- aged an upset Senate that voters will reward Re- and giving rise to compari- The boundaries dilute Dem-
er sentiments. “I think it’s victory in GOP-dominated publicans after their sweep- sons with 1994, 2006 and ocratic voting strength by
shaping up into that kind of Alabama, albeit with the ing tax cuts. “The reason I 2010, the last three times concentrating the party’s
election.” help of a Republican nomi- feel confident and com- that voters flipped control most reliable voters in fewer
Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New nee accused of sexual mis- fortable is because we ran of the chamber. districts. Those advantages
Mexico, who is leading conduct with teenage girls. on a set of ideas and poli- Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers, who explain part of the GOP’s
Democrats’ House cam- The next test is in Pennsylva- cies, we’re now executing heads the GOP’s House current 24-seat margin
paign effort, said there is a nia, where a March special those ideas and policies, campaign operation, says in the 435-representative
“clear path to a majority,” election to replace Repub- and the results are proving he believes the retirement chamber.
something he said he never lican Rep. Tim Murphy, who themselves,” Ryan said Fri- run is near its end, but he “Our districts got drawn in
saw in 2016. resigned amid allegations day in Wisconsin. and other Republicans a way where, yeah, there’s
Indeed, Trump’s job ap- he asked a woman he was Nonetheless, the environ- concede that the later the 20 or 30 competitive seats
proval rating — a key indi- having an affair with to get ment has contributed to a retirements, the harder it is out there, always will be,
cator in midterm elections an abortion, will become steady stream of Republi- for candidates to step in but most of them are pretty
— lags below 40 percent another test of momentum. can retirements. This week, and build the campaigns hard to flip,” said Rep. Greg
in most polls, and marks Trump is expected to cam- Ed Royce and Darrell Issa of necessary to win. Walden, R-Ore., who over-
for Congress are half that. paign for the Republican California, two of the more National Democrats, saw GOP efforts in House
Since Trump’s inauguration, candidate, state Rep. Rick vulnerable GOP members, meanwhile, are targeting races in the previous two
Democrats have won state Saccone. announced they would not 91 House districts — a list election cycles.q