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BUSINESS Monday 5 october 2020

Long-term jobless caught in a squeeze that imperils recovery

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER unemployed per job open-
and ALEXANDRA OLSON ing during the depths of the
Associated Press Writers Great Recession.
WASHINGTON (AP) — This "There are still a lot of peo-
spring, Magdalena Valien- ple finding jobs fairly rapid-
te was expecting her best ly," Notowidigdo said.
year as a Florida-based Still, more than one-third
concert promoter. Now, of workers who have been
she wonders if the career laid off or furloughed now
she built over three de- regard their job loss as per-
cades is over. manent, according to a
Back in March, Valiente survey by Morning Consult.
had been busy planning That's up from just 15% in
three tours and 42 live April.
events, including concerts Some economists, like
for the Panamanian reg- Sophia Koropeckyj of
gaeton star Sech and the Moody's Analytics, see ris-
Miami Latin pop band Bac- ing cause for concern. Ko-
ilos. Earning well into six fig- ropeckyj estimates that 5
ures during good years, Va- million people will struggle
liente was hoping to help to find work even after the
her youngest son, a high virus has been controlled.
school junior, pay his way In this Sept. 2, 2020, file photo, a shopper walks by one of several vacant retail spaces among the Jobs likely won't return to
through college. outlet shops in Freeport, Maine. pre-pandemic levels until
But with live events can- Associated Press late in 2023, she said in a re-
celed, things have turned search note.
bleak. She is relying on un- a new job. Many will need The performing arts and ance and credit card debt Even among some people
employment benefits and training or education to spectator sports category, from a trip to Hawaii she who have managed to
Medicaid and has applied find work with a new com- which includes Valiente's took while still working. land new jobs, the pan-
for food stamps. She has pany or in a new occupa- industry, has lost 47% of its "When you spend your en- demic recession has up-
lost hope that the crisis will tion, which can delay their jobs. It hasn't added any tire life building this career," ended their financial lives.
end soon. re-entry into the job market. net jobs since the corona- Broshious said, "it's hard to Angela Grimley worked
"I worked up from the very On Friday, the government virus struck. start over." her way up through sev-
bottom when I started in reported that employers Hotels are down 35%, res- Some economists note eral Marriott Hotels in Phil-
this business in my twen- added 661,000 jobs in Sep- taurants and bars 19%, hopefully that this recovery adelphia to become an
ties," said Valiente, a single tember, normally a healthy transportation 18%. Adver- has progressed faster than event manager, only to
mother in Fort Lauderdale. gain. Yet it marked the third tising, one of the first ex- many analysts expected have the recession kick
"There weren't many other straight monthly slowdown penses that companies cut and may keep doing so. her back down the ladder.
women, and it was hard. It's in hiring. The nation has re- in a downturn, is down 9%. Matthew Notowidigdo, an After months of unemploy-
not easy to let it go." gained barely half the 22 Higher education has lost economist at the University ment, Grimley, 38, found
Millions of Americans in the million jobs that were lost 9% of its jobs. Many class- of Chicago's Booth School, a part-time job answering
industries hit hardest by the to the pandemic and the es have been delayed or and three colleagues pre- customers' calls and emails
viral pandemic face a simi- widespread business shut- moved online, reducing dicted in a research paper for the Pennsylvania Gen-
lar plight. Their unemploy- downs it caused in March the need for janitors, caf- that the rapid recall of tem- eral Store, which sells food
ment has stretched from and April. eteria workers and other porary workers will lower and souvenirs found only in
weeks into months, and it's In a worrisome trend, a ris- administrators. Normally unemployment to 4.6% a Pennsylvania.
become painfully unclear ing proportion of job losses during recessions, the edu- year from now. That would She loves the work. And
when, if ever, their jobs will appear to be permanently cation sector adds jobs to suggest a much faster re- she feels fortunate that
come back. In the enter- gone. When the virus erupt- accommodate people covery than the previous her boyfriend, whom she
tainment field where Va- ed in March and paralyzed returning to school to seek recession. lives with, is still working.
liente worked and in other the economy, nearly 90% marketable skills or educa- Three-quarters of the tem- But before the pandemic
sectors that absorbed of layoffs were considered tion. Not this time. porarily laid off aren't both- Grimley had received a
heavy job losses — from temporary, and a quick Ashley Broshious took years ering to look for work, No- new job offer as a confer-
restaurants and hotels to rebound seemed possible. to develop skills that now towidigdo said, based on ence and event manager
energy, higher education No longer. In September, seem much less in demand. an analysis of government at a marketing company
and advertising — employ- the number of Americans A manager and somme- data, apparently because involved in healthy parent-
ment remains far below classified as permanently lier at a Charleston restau- they're confident of be- ing products. The job would
pre-pandemic levels. laid off rose 12% to 3.8 mil- rant, Broshious is one of ing recalled. And while have paid much more and
These trends have raised lion. And the number of just six certified advanced the number of job open- provided health and retire-
the specter of a period of long-term unemployed sommeliers in South Caro- ings has declined by about ment benefits, which her
widespread long-term un- rose by 781,000 — the larg- lina. Still, she was laid off in 17% compared with a year part-time job doesn't. But
employment that could est increase on record — to March. And when the res- earlier, according to Glass- the offer vanished in the
turn the viral recession into 2.4 million. taurant owner reopened door, it remains far higher pandemic.
a more painful, extended "We have a real chance of one of his two establish- than during the Great Re- The damage to her financ-
downturn. People who there being massive long- ments, she wasn't rehired. cession. es "keeps me up at night,"
have been jobless for six term unemployment," said Now, Broshious receives In July, the most recent Grimley said. Having had
months or longer — one Till Von Wachter, an eco- about $326 a week in un- month for which govern- to buy health insurance
definition of long-term un- nomics professor at UCLA. employment benefits. ment data is available, through the Affordable
employment — typically The nation now has 7% That's not nearly enough there were 2.5 unemployed Care Act, she's discovered
suffer an erosion of skills fewer jobs than in Febru- to pay the $2,400 monthly workers, on average, for that some of her doctors
and professional networks ary. Yet the damage is far rent on her home, as well each job opening. That's won't accept her new in-
that makes it harder to find deeper in some sectors. as student loans, car insur- much better than the six surance. q