Page 28 - ARUBA TODAY

A28 SCIENCE
Friday 13 March 2020
Will heat stop the spread of new virus? No one really knows

By MARIA CHENG and VIC-
TORIA MILKO
Associated Press
JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP)
— As outbreaks of the
new coronavirus that first
emerged in China contin-
ue to spread in more than
100 countries — particularly
those experiencing winter
— one of the biggest un-
answered questions is how
it will behave in warmer
weather. Like influenza,
the new disease is a respi-
ratory infection belonging
to a family of viruses that
typically survive longer in
colder environments. Most
people experience only
mild or moderate symp-
toms, such as fever and
cough, but older adults
and people with existing
health problems may have
more severe illnesses, in-
cluding pneumonia.
The virus has reached In this March 9, 2020, file photo, people rest in the sunshine in the World Trade Center's Liberty Park.
every continent except Associated Press
Antarctica but has yet to
cause major outbreaks in nificantly slow its spread. The new virus is genetically thing we can say about sively as some of the colder
the Southern Hemisphere. "Maybe after it's been related to SARS and MERS. seasonality and the coro- ones have been," he said.
Some key questions on around for a few years and Severe Acute Respiratory navirus based on what Cowling also said that how
how the virus might behave most of the world has had Syndrome first broke out we've seen with SARS and people behave in winter
once the temperature rises: it, maybe then it will settle in China in late 2002 and MERS," said Michael Oster- environments is likely hav-
WILL THE VIRUS RETREAT IN into a more flu-like pattern," ultimately sickened about holm, director of the Cen- ing an effect.
HOT WEATHER? he said. "Since we have no 8,000 people worldwide ter for Infectious Disease "People are more likely
No one knows. The new natural immunity to this, before it was declared Research and Policy at the to spend time indoors in
coronavirus was identified we're all much more vul- contained in July 2003. University of Minnesota. colder weather than they
only in late December and nerable, no matter what But the arrival of sum- "I've been in the Arabian are in the summer," he said.
most scientists say there is the weather is." mer wasn't what stopped peninsula when MERS is "More time indoors means
simply no data to suggest But Dr. Mohammad Sa- SARS. Extraordinary mea- spreading in 110-degree that people are more likely
the COVID-19 cases will jadi, an associate profes- sures that included shutting (43 degrees Celsius) heat to be in the same rooms
start declining in warmer sor of medicine at the Uni- down travel from epicen- just fine," he said. together and thus get in-
weather. versity of Maryland, thinks ters in Asia and Canada WHY HASN'T THE VIRUS fected."
"We have to assume that weather might play a role. and a mass culling of palm CAUSED SOUTHERN HEMI- Sajadi, the professor who
the virus will continue to He and colleagues found civets that spread the SPHERE EPIDEMICS? found the temperature
have the capacity to a striking temperature simi- disease to humans were It could be too early; past similarities, acknowledged
spread, and it's a false hope larity among regions with largely credited for curbing pandemics have some- epidemics are influenced
to say yes, it will just disap- sustained outbreaks of CO- the disease. times taken months to by numerous factors but
pear in the summertime like VID-19: between 5 and 11 Although the transmission reach every country in the hypothesized that coun-
influenza," said Dr. Michael degrees Celsius (41 and 52 of Middle Eastern Respira- world. Surveillance might tries with cooler weather
Ryan, the World Health Or- degrees Fahrenheit). tory Syndrome has never also be an issue. The symp- might be worse affected
ganization's emergencies "If we're right about sea- been entirely interrupted, toms of COVID-19 are simi- by the coronavirus, noting
chief. Dr. Dale Fisher, a se- sonality, that could help its spread to humans from lar to those for numerous that even southern parts
nior consultant in infectious with surveillance and other camels is mostly sporadic, other diseases, including of countries with big out-
diseases at the National public health measures," sparking limited outbreaks flu, measles and malaria, breaks, like Italy and Iran,
University of Singapore, Sajadi said. since being identified in so detecting cases of the have not been hit as badly.
was similarly unconvinced HOW HAVE RELATED VIRUS- 2012. new virus is challenging. But, Cowling said, higher
that hot weather would sig- ES BEHAVED? "I don't think there's any- Benjamin Cowling, head temperatures are unlikely
of the Epidemiology and to fully stop the continued
Biostatistics Division at the spread of the virus.
School of Public Health "I don't think we can count
at Hong Kong University, on it stopping in the sum-
said he suspects wider out- mer. It may slow down, but
breaks exist in countries it won't be stopped," he
that already have con- said. "At this rate, we would
firmed cases, such as Thai- expect every country in
land and Vietnam. the world to have cases in
"Most of the typically hot about nine months — we're
countries, we think, have headed towards that now.
not been testing as aggres- "q