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AWEMainta Diasabra, 05 Maart 2016                                                                                25

in and after WWII, the economic      working in the sectors ‘hotels and    in tourism activities result in an    Figure 3. Aruba: indices of selected
development associated with          restaurants’, ‘wholesale and retail   equal or perhaps higher growth        tourism indicators and real GDP
tourism brought Sintmaarteners       trade, repair’ or ‘construction’.     in real GDP in either country?        (1990=100)
back from the dwindling oil          The distribution of foreigners from   Correcting for population growth,
industries of Aruba and Curaçao      developing countries in Aruba                                               Figure 3 shows that in Aruba,
and attracted numerous               over the industrial branches          did real per capita GDP show any      since the firm establishment of the
immigrants from the wider            displays only slight changes          significant increase in Aruba or      tourism sector in its present form
Caribbean. Figure 2 shows the        between 1991 and 2000. In the         Sint Maarten since the onset of       in 1990, volume has grown more
extremely high contribution of       same period, employment of            large scale tourism?After all, with   than 60% in terms of stay over
immigration to Sint Maarten          persons born in Aruba increased       the development of the tourism        capacity and almost doubled in
population growth in the tourism-    strongly in the highest categories    industry over the years, we would     visitor nights. Real GDP however,
dominated era. Clearly visible as    (senior administrators, managers,     expect labour productivity to         is only just keeping up with the
well are the effects on population   professionals) and actually shrank    have grown as well. A certain         number of rooms and visitor
numbers of the devastation and       in the lower categories. Clearly,     evolution in the types and nature     nights. Taking into account the
economic downturn caused by          the indigenous population moved       of hospitality products offered,      contribution of cruise tourism
hurricanes Luis in 1995 and          into the positions of higher pay      economies of scale, increased         growth and the absence of
Lenny in 1999. More than in the      and responsibility, while the         linkages, positive externalities in   significant other economic sectors,
case of Aruba however, official      labour market was resupplied at       the infrastructure used might all     these indicators point to a stagnant
population statistics pertaining to  the base with immigrant labour.       have contributed to a higher value    or even decreasing impact of
Sint Maarten should be handled       Data of comparable quality on         added per worker indicated by a       tourism volume on economic
with caution. As early as 1995       the Sint Maarten situation is not     rising real per capita GDP.           growth, where an increase in value
the number of undocumented           readily available, but indications                                          added per unit of volume would
residents was estimated at more      over over-representation of those     Immigrant workers are typically       have pointed to increasing product
than 10-12,000, an estimate          with Dutch citizenship in civil       not immediately accompanied           quality and labour productivity.
consistently mentioned in the        service and in better paid positions  by their families, and even less by
years since. In 1995 this number     in the private sector are strong.     retirees. This effect increases the   Figure 4 shows that cruise
constituted roughly 25% of the                                             proportion of the economically        tourism has become an even
actual population.                   Aruba and Sint Maarten are            active to the total population. This  more dominant source of activity
                                     examples of fast extensive growth     in turn leads to an overstatement     in Sint Maarten over the past
Figure 2. Sint Maarten: population                                         of productivity when measured         decades. Over the same period,
and cumulative net migration         At first glance, Aruba as well as     through real per capita GDP. In       the number of stay over visitors
1981-2009                            Sint Maarten is a shining example     other words, under circumstances      declined, though stabilizing after
                                     of successful, fast economic          of steady immigration of              the mid-1990s hurricane disaster.
Next to the directly tourism-        growth based on a commitment          economically active persons,          The cruise tourism line clearly
related employment there has         to the tourism industry, as is        with actual labour productivity       shows the effects of the 1995 and
also been a large growth in          apparent from -overall- GDP           assumed constant, we should see a     1999 hurricanes as well. Cruise
construction sector. In the case     numbers, the TPI index and the        steadily increasing real per capita   tourism stagnated again after
of Aruba, indigenous workers         SITE classification, as discussed     GDP.                                  2005 and was further hit by the
on balance actually moved out        above. This section will zoom in on
of the hotel sector and into other   a number of questions regarding
areas of occupation. CBS Aruba       labour productivity and average
reports that in 2000, about 60       income. Did the volume growth
percent of all persons born in
developing countries were either
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