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A16 SPORTS
Tuesday 23 april 2024

NFL teams often misfire on drafting QBs. But how often do they fail?

And why?

By DAVE CAMPBELL and first-round pick on a quar-
JOSH DUBOW terback in the ensuing four
AP Pro Football Writers drafts, including the Car-
The Minnesota Vikings need dinals, who traded away
a quarterback in this draft. Rosen after one year and
That much is easy to see. took Kyler Murray first over-
The hard part is picking the all in 2019.
right one and determining Chicago and New England
what it’s worth to them to could add to that count at
get him. the top of this draft with the
With this top-flight class Bears widely expected to
featuring Caleb Williams, draft Williams at No. 1 over-
Jayden Daniels, Drake all after trading away 2021
Maye and J.J. McCarthy first-round QB Justin Fields
the Vikings are poised to and New England possibly
set up their future with the using the third pick on a
11th and 23rd overall picks replacement for 2021 first-
that could be packaged rounder Mac Jones.
together for a move into Getting a quarterback
the top five. worthy of a second con-
But they realize, no matter tract is no sign of success
how well set up they are with many of those being
for a rookie with a quarter- no better than a mid-level
back-friendly head coach performer like Daniel Jones,
in Kevin O’Connell and a Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bor-
superstar wide receiver in New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) warms up before an NFL football game against the tles and Carson Wentz.
Justin Jefferson, there is Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. “I think it’s probably the
no guarantee in this highly Associated Press most, probably the tough-
calculated yet no-better- est position of all profes-
than-a-coin-flip exercise of also under consideration that. their teams to multiple sional sports to play,” said
finding that franchise play- for other QB-needy teams “When we talk about these playoff wins so far. Packers general manager
er in the NFL. outside the top 10 like Den- players, it’s not just how “I feel like it’s really hard to Brian Gutekunst, whose
“I think our odds will be ver and Las Vegas. good are they. It’s how do evaluate quarterbacks, but franchise has enjoyed a
better than the margins. But for every Patrick Ma- we get the best version of you just try to get better and more than 30-year uninter-
How good are those odds? homes, there is a Josh themselves if they come try to understand what you rupted run of top-flight QB
Obviously, it’s still a pret- Rosen. to the Minnesota Vikings? did the last time that was play from Brett Favre to Aar-
ty risky thing,” third-year “I think it would be hard to We set up plans before really good and what you on Rodgers to Jordan Love.
general manager Kwesi point to the results and say they walk in the building,” did last time that was really “You never really know until
Adofo-Mensah said. “But we’ve made progress, as Adofo-Mensah said. “I think bad,” said Commanders you have that time to try
just because something’s sad as that is,” NFL Network our odds will be better than first-year general manager to develop a guy, whether
risky doesn’t mean you’re draft analyst Daniel Jeremi- the margins.” Adam Peters, who is aiming he’s going to be able to do
scared of it.” ah said. “The more you look Still, the league-wide hit for better success picking a it at a high level or not. So,
Teams are using premium at it, I think there’s more at- rate remains largely a tos- QB at No. 2 this year than he it’s just a tough league to
draft picks on quarterbacks tention being paid now to sup. had as assistant GM in San excel at that position, for
at an increasingly high maybe more so the envi- From the start of the rook- Francisco when the 49ers sure.”
rate. This draft is slated to ronment than the actual ie wage scale era in the took Trey Lance third over- But the success stories are
be the eighth in the past quarterback, and know- 2011 draft through 2022, 38 all in 2021. “It’s constantly the reason why teams
nine years with at least ing how to set the table quarterbacks have been evolving, and I don’t think keep coming back with the
three QBs taken in the first for when you do take the drafted in the first round. anybody has the magic pill hope of getting their fran-
round, which matches the quarterback, that he can Those QBs have essentially to understand that one. If chise-lifting quarterback,
number of times that hap- be successful.” played at slightly below they do let me know, I’ll hire like Mahomes, Josh Allen,
pened in the first 38 years of Never mind whether the league-average rates early them.” Lamar Jackson or Joe Bur-
the common draft era. player is a rhythm pocket in their careers with a pass- The majority of those busts row.
Quarterbacks could go passer, adept at ad-lib- er rating 1.5 points below provided two seasons or Five of the seven teams
with the top three picks for bing, or somewhere in be- league average over their fewer as regular starters as with the best odds to win
the fourth time ever with tween. first three seasons. teams quickly moved on the Super Bowl, according
Chicago, Washington and “Different styles, that’s not Half of those QBs were al- from failures like Jake Lock- to BetMGM Sportsbook, are
New England all sorely in something to get carried lowed to leave their origi- er, Johnny Manziel, Pax- led by a quarterback they
need of a passer who can away with. To me, it’s more nal teams without even ton Lynch and of course selected in the first round.
turn the fortunes of a fran- a focus of, ‘Do we have the reaching the relatively low Rosen, who spent time with Nine of the last AP NFL
chise. right play caller, the right bar of receiving a second a whopping seven teams MVPs are first-round quar-
This draft could break a offensive line to protect contract, with 2021 second over five years after Arizona terbacks with their original
record with four quarter- him, and do we have some overall pick Zach Wilson ex- traded up five spots to take teams.
backs possibly going in the guys he can get the ball pected to join that group him 10th overall in 2018. “I think there’s risk obvious-
top nine picks. The over- to?’” Jeremiah said. “I think soon in a departure from Several teams were quickly ly,” Broncos coach Sean
under for total QBs taken in that seems to be what’s the New York Jets. forced back on the quar- Payton said.
the first round is set at 4½ by going to lead to these guys Only five earned first- or terback draft carousel. “There’s no certainty or else
BetMGM Sportsbook with being a success or not.” second-team All-Pro hon- There were eight instances we’d be fantastic with the
Michael Penix and Bo Nix The Vikings are banking on ors. Only eight have led of a team using another draft.”q