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Changes!

Commentary

The world has already changed. There is a range of ‘middle’ powers forming. There is

st
clearly a 21 century scramble for Africa underway. And if the USA, or even the UK, wants
to share in the long-term growth in African economies, they would do well to think about
how best to ‘position’ themselves in the eyes of Africans.

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The world economy has changed enormously since the time of African independence.

(The USA share of world GDP is now just under 20%, and is expected to shrink to only 12% by 2050. At
that time China is expected to have 16%, India c 14% and Indonesia 11%)

It will go through more big changes in the decades ahead.

See the following

... over the next few decades, Africa will add approximately one billion new workers to its
labor force,

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By 2070, after thirty years in which all growth in the labor force in the world will be
in sub-Saharan Africa, that region will have a working-age population of 1.8 billion,
more than the United States, India, and China combined,

“Africa 2050: Demographic Truth and Consequences”, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
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We are going to need Africa as much as they need us now
We will need access to Africa’s resources or its markets. We will be in competition with

other nations. The competition will become more and more intense.

Much of the first 60 years of African independence was a time of USA dominance

over the global economy. A time of superpowers. That time has already ended. The USA
share of global GDP is already down to 20% and is expected to be only 12% within 2 or so

decades.

The next 60 years of African independence will be a period of several ‘regional’ or

‘middle’ powers. These will include China, India and Indonesia. Each able to project their

influence over their region. Each strong enough economically, politically and militarily to
avoid being dominated by others. None strong enough to claim superpower status. This

will change the dynamics within which African governments will have to navigate. But
there are other ‘competitors’.