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Reproductive Impairment of Great Lakes Lake Trout by Dioxin-Like Chemicals  853


                                   2000
                                        Sub-
                                        Lethal  Mortality  100% Mortality
                                        Effects
                                   1990                             Core LO87–20
                                   1980

                                   1970                                        > 500


                                   1960
                                   1950


                                   1940
                                                                  2378 TCDD    2378 TCDF
                                   1930                           PCB 126      Other
                                                                  23478 PeCDF  Measured in
                                                                             lake trout
                                                                  12378 PeCDD
                                   1920                                      Estimated from
                                                                  123478 HxCDF  TCDD in herring
                                                                  PCB 77     gull eggs
                                   1910
                                       0      50      100     150      200     250     300
                                                   TEQs in Lake Trout Eggs (pg/g ww)
                       FIGURE 21.8 TEQs in lake trout eggs determined retrospectively from analysis of radionuclide-dated, 1-cm sections of
                       a sediment core (LO87-20) from eastern Lake Ontario. The concentrations of each AhR agonist times the appropriate BSAF
                       values for lake trout eggs and fish TEF equate to the contribution of each chemical to the TEQs in the eggs that may be
                       related to mortality expected from acute and chronic toxicity in Lake Ontario lake trout sac fry. Predicted TEQs in eggs
                       are compared to measured  TEQs in eggs of lake trout (diamonds) and lake trout egg  TEQs estimated from  TCDD
                       concentrations measured in herring gull eggs (circles). (From Cook, P.M. et al., Environ. Sci. Technol., 37, 3867–3877,
                       2003. With permission.)


                       present, TCDD-associated toxicity would have impacted the lake trout population in Lake Ontario for
                       at least four decades (1940 to 1980) and would have caused complete reproductive failure for nearly
                       three decades (1945 to 1975). These predictions could underestimate impacts to the extent some AhR
                       agonists were present and unaccounted for in the assessment.
                        The resulting estimates of early-life-stage mortality predicted over this time period were then compared
                       to known rates of fry mortality and observation of population trends in Lake Ontario (Figure 21.9). The
                       minimum toxicity model had thresholds as listed above. The maximum toxicity model incorporated the
                       precept that sublethal toxic effects, which occur during development, would result in losses from the
                       population at later life stages. Sublethal effects of HAHs in salmonine fry most certainly could affect
                       juvenile fitness and their ability to compete in natural environments; therefore, predictions of maximum
                       toxicity presented in their risk assessment were based on a TCDD threshold for mortality of 5 pg/g and
                       100% mortality occurring at 50 pg/g in the lake trout eggs. Their choice of a maximum toxicity threshold
                       of 5 pg/g was also based on the fact that lake trout from Lake Superior had similar exposures during the
                       1960 and 1970s, yet there were no associated reductions in native trout populations (Hansen et al., 1995).
                        The predicted lake trout early-life-stage toxicities were compared with the observed sac fry mortality
                       rates in lake trout collected by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (Cook et al.,
                       2003). The observations of blue-sac-related mortality compared well with the predicted estimates based
                       on the additive 2,3,7,8-TCDD toxicity equivalence model over the period from 1978 to 1991 (Figure
                       21.9). Additive toxicity of HAHs had previously been demonstrated with binary mixtures, synthetic
                       mixtures, and complex environmental mixtures, so the 2,3,7,8-TCDD toxicity equivalence approach was
                       supported and again appeared to accurately reflect the toxicity of HAH congeners in an environmental
                       mixture.
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