Page 216 - Flipping book The Adam Paradox Hypothesis - Second Edition.pdf

The Ādam Paradox Hypothesis 193
Why the Numbers Differ
The <5% under APH reflects that a long silence is central to APH —
continuous symbols that early would directly falsify it.
The ~70% under gradualism reflects that, if evolution was slow and steady,
it’s more probable than not that symbols would show up before 150kya and
build gradually into the later explosion.
In short: Continuous symbols too early are almost impossible under APH, but
expected under gradualism.
Falsifier 2 — Absence of Regulatory Sweeps
Test: If no selective sweeps in cognition-linked regulatory loci are found
~70kya, APH loses genomic foundation.
Equation:
If fixation times scatter randomly 300–50kya, APH is wrong.
Probability: <10% under APH,
~80% under gradualism.
The Math
If genome-wide scans do not find selective sweeps in cognition-linked
regulatory loci (e.g., enhancers/introns near FOXP2, HAR1, SRGAP2C)
around ~70kya, then APH’s genomic prediction fails.
Why the math points to ~70kya:
Fixation time (how long a helpful change takes to spread to everyone) can be
estimated by