Page 217 - Flipping book The Adam Paradox Hypothesis - Second Edition.pdf

The Ādam Paradox Hypothesis 194
What would falsify APH:
If the timing of fixation signals for cognition-regulatory loci isn’t clustered near
~70kya but instead scatters randomlyacross 300–50kya, APH’s step-change
prediction is wrong.
Probabilities (why these numbers):
Under APH (<10%): APH expects a cluster of sweeps near ~70kya. Not
finding them there (or finding only scatter) is unlikely if APH is true—
hence low probability for “no sweeps at ~70kya.
”
Under Gradualism (~80%): Gradualism expects no single cluster; changes
should spread over 200k+ years. So failing to see a ~70kya cluster (i.e.,
seeing absence/dispersion) is quite likely, hence high probability.
One-line takeaway:
If there’s no ~70kya sweep signal in cognition-regulatory DNA, APH loses its
genomic anchor; that outcome is unlikely under APH, but expected under
gradualism.
Notes: In genetics, a selective sweep is the process through which a new beneficial mutation that
increases its frequency and becomes fixed (i.e., reaches a frequency of 1) in the population leads to the
reduction or elimination of genetic variation among nucleotidesequences that are near the mutation. In
selective sweep, positive selection causes the new mutation to reach fixation so quickly that linked alleles
can "hitchhike"
and also become fixed.