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Why Rational People Buy Into Conspiracies 11

Why Rational People Buy

Into Conspiracy Theories

By Maggie Koerth-Baker

In the days following the bombings at the
Boston Marathon, speculation online regarding
the identity and motive of the unknown
perpetrator or perpetrators was rampant. And
once the Tsarnaev brothers were identified and
the manhunt came to a close, the speculation
didn’t cease. It took a new form. A sampling:
Maybe the brothers Tsarnaev were just patsies,
fall guys set up to take the heat for a mysterious
Saudi with high-level connections; or maybe
they were innocent, but instead of the Saudis,
the actual bomber had acted on behalf of a
rogue branch of our own government; or what if
the Tsarnaevs were behind the attacks, but were
secretly working for a larger organization?
Crazy as these theories are, those
more pernicious. Consider this: 63 percent of Surprisingly, Swami’s work has also
propagating them are not — they’re quite
normal, in fact. But recent scientific research registered American voters believe in at least turned up a correlation between conspiracy
one political conspiracy theory, according to a theorizing and strong support of democratic
tells us this much: if you think one of the
recent poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson principles. But this isn’t quite so strange if you
theories above is plausible, you probably feel
University. consider the context. Kathryn Olmsted, a
the same way about the others, even though
While psychologists can’t know exactly historian at the University of California, Davis,
they contradict one another. And it’s very likely
what goes on inside our heads, they have, says that conspiracy theories wouldn’t exist in a
that this isn’t the only news story that makes
through surveys and laboratory studies, come world in which real conspiracies don’t exist.
you feel as if shadowy forces are behind major
up with a set of traits that correlate well with And those conspiracies — Watergate or the Iran-
world events.
conspiracy belief. In 2010, Swami and a co- contra Affair — often involve manipulating and
“The best predictor of belief in a
conspiracy theory is belief in other conspiracy author summarized this research in The circumventing the democratic process. Even
Psychologist, a scientific journal. They found, people who believe that the Sandy Hook
theories,” says Viren Swami, a psychology
perhaps surprisingly, that believers are more shooting was actually a drama staged by actors
professor who studies conspiracy belief at the
likely to be cynical about the world in general couch their arguments in concern for the
University of Westminster in England.
and politics in particular. Conspiracy theories preservation of the Second Amendment.
Psychologists say that’s because a conspiracy
also seem to be more compelling to those with Our access to high-quality information
theory isn’t so much a response to a single event
low self-worth, especially with regard to their has not, unfortunately, ushered in an age in
as it is an expression of an overarching
sense of agency in the world at large. which disagreements of this sort can easily be
worldview.
Conspiracy theories appear to be a way of solved with a quick Google search. In fact, the
As Richard Hofstadter wrote in his
reacting to uncertainty and powerlessness. Internet has made things worse. Confirmation
seminal 1965 book, “The Paranoid Style in
Economic recessions, terrorist attacks bias — the tendency to pay more attention to
American Politics,” conspiracy theories,
and natural disasters are massive, looming evidence that supports what you already believe
especially those involving meddlesome
threats, but we have little power over when they — is a well-documented and common human
foreigners, are a favorite pastime in this nation.
occur or how or what happens afterward. In failing. People have been writing about it for
Americans have always had the sneaking
these moments of powerlessness and centuries. In recent years, though, researchers
suspicion that somebody was out to get us — be
uncertainty, a part of the brain called the have found that confirmation bias is not easy to
it Freemasons, Catholics or communists. But in
amygdala kicks into action. Paul Whalen, a overcome. You can’t just drown it in facts.
recent years, it seems as if every tragedy comes
scientist at Dartmouth College who studies the In 2006, the political scientists Brendan
with a round of yarn-spinning, as the Web fills
amygdala, says it doesn’t exactly do anything Nyhan and Jason Reifler identified a
with stories about “false flag” attacks and
on its own. Instead, the amygdala jump-starts phenomenon called the “backfire effect.” They
“crisis actors” — not mere theorizing but
the rest of the brain into analytical overdrive — showed that efforts to debunk inaccurate
arguments for the existence of a completely
prompting repeated reassessments of political information can leave people more
alternate version of reality.
information in an attempt to create a coherent convinced that false information is true than
Since Hofstadter’s book was published,
and understandable narrative, to understand they would have been otherwise. Nyhan isn’t
our access to information has vastly improved,
what just happened, what threats still exist and sure why this happens, but it appears to be more
which you would think would have helped
what should be done now. This may be a useful prevalent when the bad information helps
minimize such wild speculation. But according
way to understand how, writ large, the brain’s bolster a favored worldview or ideology.
to recent scientific research on the matter, it
capacity for generating new narratives after In that way, Swami says, the Internet and
most likely only serves to make theories more
shocking events can contribute to so much other media have helped perpetuate paranoia.
convincing to the public. What’s even more
paranoia in this country. Not only does more exposure to these alternative
surprising is that this sort of theorizing isn’t
“If you know the truth and others don’t, narratives help engender belief in conspiracies,
limited to those on the margins. Perfectly sane
that’s one way you can reassert feelings of he says, but the Internet’s tendency toward
minds possess an incredible capacity for
having agency,” Swami says. It can be tribalism helps reinforce misguided beliefs.
developing narratives, and even some of the
comforting to do your own research even if that
wildest conspiracy theories can be grounded in
research is flawed. It feels good to be the wise (Continues on Page 12)
rational thinking, which makes them that much
old goat in a flock of sheep.
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