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will prevent advances toward prosperity: Seize property at the convenience of
the executive; suppress science and technology to fit preconceptions; restrict
the movement of capital; and neglect the infrastructure. Bernstein provides
evidence that wherever these four constraints have been violated, nations lan-
guished, but where they were satisfied, nations grew wealthy.
The third type of big error is more fundamental in its consequences than
wars of choice and mismanagement of a nation’s economic activity: Destruction
of the natural environment, especially the natural resources that form the basis
of food production, not only leads to poverty but to outright collapse. In his
2005 book Collapse, big picture scholar Jarred Diamond has reviewed the
depressingly rich repertoire of examples of societal collapse offered by his-
tory. From the Viking deforestation of Iceland to unregulated mining and
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unwise water use in Montana, the tendency not to notice the gradual degrada-
tion of natural resources has been a recurring theme in human history and
continues unabated in the present overuse of fossil fuels. The operative con-
straint is simple to state: Do not saw off the branch you are sitting on.
In short, there are three major types of constraint violations at the histori-
cal level: wars of choice; suppression of economic activity (through the lack of
one or more of the following: property rights, independent judiciary, freedom
of thought, free movement of capital and a working infrastructure), and unsus-
tainable use of natural resources. Even at the historical level, there are opportu-
nities to learn from error, if only society leaders could be bothered to do so.
It is important that they be induced to do so, because human history is
not about to come to any kind of end. Space stations provide benefits for peo-
ple living on the Earth, but they also provide a novel place to live. Given the
200,000-year-old itch to move on that drove humans to colonize all of Earth,
it would be surprising if space stations did not evolve into cities in space, com-
plete with solar power and chemical food production, not to mention infinite,
free real estate. Once near space has been colonized, the step will be short to
the colonization of the Moon and the planets. Science fiction authors have
begun to imagine the skill sets needed to live an entire life in free fall, and the
institutions and practices required to conduct human affairs on an interplan-
etary scale. Their imaginations will no doubt turn out to be accurate in some
respects and inaccurate in others. The future might unfold in many ways, but
individuals and societies will continue to improve their skills and practices
by translating deviations between expected and observed outcomes into more
specific conditions on their operating procedures, another pattern that recurs
at each time scale and at every system size.