Page 110 - The Social Animal

92 The Social Animal

But, of course, the situation is dangerous. The possibility of a se-
rious terrorist attack is real. Moreover, the behavior of our govern-
ment officials is not simply inept; rather, I would suggest that it has
done more harm than good. As we have seen, scaring people with-
out offering them a sensible course of action leads to a heightened
state of anxiety without producing constructive action. Worse still,
people cannot tolerate living in a state of constant anxiety. Thus, if
vague warnings recur and prove to be false alarms, most of us will
eventually drift into a state of denial and become bored and compla-
cent and will eventually stop listening. 49

Consensual Statistical Evidence Versus a Single Per-
sonal Example Suppose you are in the market for a new car, and
the two most important things you are looking for are reliability and
longevity. That is, you don’t care about looks, styling, or mileage;
what you do care about is the frequency of repair. As a reasonable and
sensible person, you consult Consumer Reports and, let us say, you
learn that the car with the best repair record is the Volvo. Naturally,
you decide to buy a Volvo. But suppose that, the night before you are
to make the purchase, you attend a dinner party and announce your
intention to one of your friends. He is incredulous: “You can’t be se-
rious,” he says. “My cousin bought a Volvo last year and has had
nothing but trouble ever since. First, the fuel injection system broke
down; then the transmission fell out; then strange, undiagnosable
noises started to come from the engine; finally, oil started to drip
from some unknown place. My poor cousin is literally afraid to drive
the car for fear of what will happen next.”
Let’s suppose the ranking made by Consumer Reports was based
on a sample of 1,000 Volvo owners. Your friend’s cousin’s unfortu-
nate experience has increased the size of the sample to 1,001. It has
added one negative case to your statistical bank. Logically, this
should not affect your decision. But a large body of research by
Richard Nisbett and his associates (from whose work this example
50
was borrowed) indicates that such occurrences, because of their
vividness, assume far more importance than their logical statistical
status would imply. Indeed, such occurrences are frequently decisive.
Thus, with the example of the plight of your friend’s cousin firmly
fixed in your mind, it would be very difficult for you to rush out and
purchase a Volvo.