Page 454 - Environment: The Science Behind the Stories

Figure 2 Maximenko’s computer simulation
predicts where plastics and trash accumu-
late based on oceanic currents. They include
the North and South Atlantic Gyres, Indian
Ocean Gyre, and the North and South
Pacific Gyres. The North Pacific Gyre off
the coast of California is home to the “Great
Pacific Garbage Patch.” Source: IPRC Climate,
2008.

the North Atlantic Gyre where Maximen-
ko’s model predicted it. Further valida-
tion arrived in 2011, when a survey of
the South Atlantic Gyre found elevated
levels of plastic in locations predicted
0.01 2 4 6 8 10 by the model. The remaining “garbage
Relative change in drifter concentration
patches” (South Pacific Ocean and
South Indian Ocean) have yet to be veri-
fied as of 2012 because these areas, like
the other areas identified in the model, lie
outside traditional shipping lanes.
Maximenko’s model was recently
Mar 21, 2011 Mar 2012 put to another use—predicting the
fate of the massive amounts of debris
washed into the northern Pacific by
the tsunami following the 2011 Tohoku
earthquake (pp. 40–41). The model
correctly predicted the arrival of sig-
nificant debris in Hawaii in 2012–2013
and predicts that sizeable amounts
of debris will reach the western coast
of the United States in 2014 (Figure
Mar 2013 Mar 2014
3). The debris will then revisit Hawaii
in 2016 in greater quantities and for a
longer duration than the first visit.
Thanks to the work of Maximenko
and his colleagues, we now better
understand the movements of plastics
and other debris in the oceans. Armed CHAPTER 16 • M AR in E A nd Co A s TA l s ys TEM s A nd R E sou R CE s
with this knowledge, we will be better
able to properly assess and, we hope,
Mar 2015 Mar 2016 remediate the impacts of plastics on
marine life.

Figure 3 computer models predict the fate
of debris from the 2011 tsunami in northern
Japan. The bulk of the debris is expected to
reach the shores of the western United States
in early to mid 2014 and to remain off the
coast of California in the North Pacific Gyre.
0.01 1 2 3 4 5 Source: Nikolai Maximenko, International Pacific
Relative change in drifter concentration Research Center.
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