Page 420 - Essencials of Sociology

Divorce and Remarriage 393

Down-to-Earth Sociology

“What Are Your Chances of Getting Divorced?”

s you have seen, over a lifetime, about half of all Other factors increase the risk for divorce, but sociolo-
marriages fail. If you have that 50 percent figure gists have not computed percentages for them. Here is
Adancing in your head while you are getting married, one that might strike you as strange: Divorce is higher
you might as well make sure that you have an escape hatch among couples whose firstborn child is a girl (Ananat and
open even while you’re saying “I do.” Michaels 2007; Dahl and Moretti 2008). The reason is
Not every group carries the same risk of divorce. probably that men prefer sons, and if the firstborn
For some, the risk is much higher; for others, much is a boy, the father is more likely to stick around
lower. Let’s look at some factors that reduce people’s (Gallup Poll 2011b). A second factor is more
risk. As Table 12.2 shows, sociologists have worked obvious: The more co-workers you have
out percentages that you might find useful. As you who are of the opposite sex, the
can see, people who go to college, participate more likely you are to get divorced
in a religion, wait until marriage before hav- (McKinnish 2007). (I’m sure you can
ing children, and earn higher incomes have a figure out why.) Another factor is
much better chance that their marriages will marrying someone of a different
last. You can also see that having parents race–ethnicity, which leads to more
who did not divorce is significant. If incompatible backgrounds. (But
you reverse these factors, you will page 391 gives exceptions.)
see how the likelihood of di- Another factor that no one
vorce increases for people who knows the reason for is working
have a baby before they marry, with people who are recently
who marry in their teens, and divorced (Aberg 2003). It could
so on. It is important to note, be that divorced people are
however, that these factors re- more likely to “hit on” their fel-
duce the risk of divorce for low workers—and human na-
groups of people, not for Divorces are often messy. To settle the question of who gets the ture being what it is. . . .
any particular individual. house, a couple in Cambodia sawed their house in half.

For Your Consideration
Why do you think that people who go to col-
TABLE 12.2 What Reduces the Risk of
↑
lege have a lower risk of divorce? How would you
Divorce? explain the other factors shown in Table 12.2 or
discussed in this box?
Why can’t you figure your own chances of
Factors That Reduce People’s How Much Does This
↑
Chances of Divorce Decrease the Risk of Divorce? divorce by starting with some percentage (say
14 percent less likelihood of divorce if your
Some college (vs. high school –13% parents are not divorced, another 13 percent for
dropout) going to college, and so on)? To better under-
Affiliated with a religion (vs. none) –14% stand this, you might want to read the section on
Parents not divorced –14% the misuse of statistics on page 398.
Age 25 or over at marriage –24%
(vs. under 18)
Having a baby 7 months or –24%
longer after marriage
(vs. before marriage)
Annual income over $25,000 –30%
(vs. under $25,000)
Note: These percentages apply to the first ten years of marriage.
Source: Whitehead and Popenoe 2004; Copen et al. 2012.