Page 467 - Essencials of Sociology

440 CHAPTER 14 Population and Urbanization

Malthus theorem an observation The New Malthusians
by Thomas Malthus that although Was Malthus right? This question has provoked heated debate among demographers.
the food supply increases arithmeti- One group, which can be called the New Malthusians, is convinced that today’s situa-
cally (from 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 and so
on), population grows geometri- tion is at least as grim as—if not grimmer than—Malthus ever imagined. For example,
cally (from 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 and the world’s population is growing so fast that in just the time it takes you to read this chap-
so forth) ter, another 20,000 to 40,000 babies will be born! By this time tomorrow, Earth will have
about 231,000 more people to feed. This increase goes on hour after hour, day after day,
exponential growth curve a
pattern of growth in which numbers without letup. For an illustration of this growth, see Figure 14.1.
double during approximately equal The New Malthusians point out that the world’s population is following an exponential
intervals, showing a steep accelera- growth curve. This means that if growth doubles during approximately equal intervals
tion in the later stages of time, it suddenly accelerates. To illustrate the far-reaching implications of exponential
growth, sociologist William Faunce (1981) retold an old parable about a poor man who
saved a rich man’s life. The rich man was grateful and said that he wanted to reward the
man for his heroic deed.
The man replied that he would like his reward to be spread out over a four-week period,
with each day’s amount being twice what he received on the preceding day. He also said
he would be happy to receive only one penny on the first day. The rich man immediately
handed over the penny and congratulated himself on how cheaply he had gotten by.
At the end of the first week, the rich man checked to see how much he owed and was
pleased to find that the total was only $1.27. By the end of the second week he owed only
$163.83. On the twenty-first day, however, the rich man was surprised to find that the
total had grown to $20,971.51. When the twenty-eighth day arrived the rich man was
shocked to discover that he owed $1,342,177.28 for that day alone and that the total re-
ward had jumped to $2,684,354.56!
This is precisely what alarms the New Malthusians. They claim that humanity has just
entered the “fourth week” of an exponential growth curve. To see why they think the
day of reckoning is just around the corner, look at Figure 14.2. It took from the beginning
of time until 1800 for the world’s population to reach its first billion. It then took only

Large families on U.S. farms used
to be common. Children helped
plant and harvest crops, take care of
animals, and prepare food. As the
country industrialized and urbanized,
children became nonproducers,
making them expensive to have
around. Consequently, the size of
families shrank as we entered Stage 3
of the demographic transition.
The two adult sons in this 1890s
Minnesota farm family are likely from
their father’s first wife who died.