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Population Growth 449

immigration, that of the United States would be standing still or decreasing. As demogra-
phers like to phrase this, Mexico’s age structure gives it greater population momentum.

The Three Demographic Variables
How many people will live in the United States fifty years from now? What will the
world’s population be then? These are important questions. Educators want to know
how many schools to build. Manufacturers want to anticipate changes in the market
for their products. The government needs to know how many doctors, engineers, and
executives to train. Politicians want to know how many people will be paying taxes—and
how many young people will be available to fight their wars.
To project the future of populations, demographers use three demographic variables:
fertility, mortality, and migration. Let’s look at each.
Fertility. The number of children that the average woman bears is called the fertility Watch on MySocLab
rate. The world’s overall fertility rate is 2.4, which means that during her lifetime, the Video: The Basics: Population,
average woman in the world bears 2.4 children (Haub and Kaneda 2012). A term that is Urbanization, and Environment
sometimes confused with fertility is fecundity, the number of children that women are
capable of bearing. This number is rather high, as some women have given birth to
30 children (McFalls 2007).
To see which countries have the highest and TABLE 14.1 Extremes in Childbirth
lowest low birth rates, look at Table 14.1. You
can see that two countries tie for the world’s low-
est fertility rate. There, the average woman gives Where Do Women Give Birth to Where Do Women Give Birth
the Fewest Children?
to the Most Children?
birth to only 1.1 children. Five of the lowest-
birth countries are in Europe. The other five Number of Number of
are located in Asia. Now look at the countries Country Children Country Children
with the highest birth rates. Four of them are in Latvia 1.1 Niger 7.1
Africa, and one is in Asia. Niger in West Africa Taiwan 1.1 Burundi 6.4
holds the record for the world’s highest birth Andorra 1.2 Somalia 6.4
rate. There, the average woman gives birth to 7.1 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.2 Angola 6.3
children, over six times as many children as the Hong Kong 1.2 Congo, Dem. Republic 6.3
average woman in Latvia and Taiwan.
To compute the fertility rate of a country, Hungary 1.2 Mali 6.3
demographers analyze the government’s records Macao 1.2 Zambia 6.3
of births. From these, they figure the country’s San Marino 1.2 Afghanistan 6.2
crude birth rate, the annual number of live Singapore 1.2 Uganda 6.2
births per 1,000 people.
South Korea 1.2 Burkina Faso 6.0
Mortality. The second demographic variable Source: Haub and Kaneda 2012.
is measured by the crude death rate, the annual
number of deaths per 1,000 people. Its extremes
are even greater than the extremes of the birth rate. The highest death rate is 17, a record demographic variables the three
held by two African countries, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea-Bissau. The factors that change the size of a
population: fertility, mortality, and
lowest death rate is 1, a record held by two Asian countries, Qatar and United Arab Emir- net migration
ates (Haub and Kaneda 2012).
fertility rate the number of chil-
Migration. The third demographic variable is migration, the movement of people from dren that the average woman bears
one area to another. There are two types of migration. The first type occurs when people fecundity the number of children
move from one region to another within the same country. During and after World War that women are capable of bearing
II, in what U.S. demographers call “The Great Migration,” millions of African Americans crude birth rate the annual number
moved from the South to the North. In a historical shift, many are now returning to the of live births per 1,000 population
South to participate in its growing economy, to enjoy its warmer climate, and to renew ties
with family roots (Bilefsky 2011). crude death rate the annual num-
The second type of migration occurs when people move from one country to another. ber of deaths per 1,000 population
Demographers use the term net migration rate to refer to the difference between the net migration rate the difference
number of immigrants (people moving into a country) and emigrants (people moving between the number of immigrants
out of a country) per 1,000 people. Unlike fertility and mortality, migration does not and emigrants per 1,000 population