Page 478 - Essencials of Sociology

Population Growth 451

immigrants produce more than they cost (Council of Economic FIGURE 14.8 Countries of Origin
Advisers; Parker 2013). Other economists conclude that immi-
grants cost taxpayers trillions of dollars (Davis and Weinstein 2002; of Unauthorized Immigrants to the
Rector and Richwine 2013). Determining the costs or benefits of United States
immigrants has become a highly-charged political matter. I shake
my head in wonder as I see political liberals and conservatives look
at the same data and arrive at opposite conclusions. In the midst
of this controversy, the fairest conclusion seems to be that the more Mexico
6,800,000
educated immigrants produce more than they cost, while the less
educated cost more than they produce.

Problems in Forecasting Population Growth
Russia’s population is falling. We’ve got to do something. Let’s
give $5,000 to every woman who has a first child—and $15,000 El Salvador 660,000
to women who have a second child. And let men have two wives. Guatemala 520,000
—Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Russian politician, January 2010 Honduras 380,000
China 280,000
Here’s a better idea. Let’s have a National Day of Conception. Philippines 270,000
India 240,000
Workers can go home early and make love. Any woman who has a
Korea 230,000
child 9 months later will get a free refrigerator. Ecuador 210,000
—Another politician in Russia Vietnam 170,000
Other Countries 1,750,000
How politicians complicate the demographer’s job. Russians in Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States 2013:Table 45.
Ulyanovsk now celebrate a Day of Conception. Women who give
birth on Russia Day, June 12, win prizes—video cameras, TVs, refrigerators. The grand
prize is a car (“Russians Given Day Off” 2007; Salyer 2013). basic demographic equation
If population growth depended only on biology, making projections of the future the growth rate equals births minus
population would be easier. Just use the basic demographic equation. Add and subtract deaths plus net migration
the three demographic variables—fertility, mortality, and net migration—and you get a growth rate the net change in a
country’s growth rate, the net change after people have been added to and subtracted population after adding births, sub-
from a population. Here is how demographers put it: tracting deaths, and either adding
or subtracting net migration; can
Growth rate equals births minus deaths plus net migration. result in a negative number

Then you just project the results into the future—because current rates indicate future rates.
This couple is sitting in the grand
Or they usually do, and here is the rub. Some politician comes along and pushes those
prize they won for participating in the
rates in an unexpected direction. When Hitler decided that Germany needed more “Aryans,” Day of Conception and giving birth
the government outlawed abortion and offered on Russia Day.
not refrigerators but cash to women who gave
birth. Germany’s population increased.
Some politicians go in the other direction
and try to slow births. The Indian government
is offering $106 to each newlywed woman
who waits two years to get pregnant (Yardley
2010). As you probably know, China has a
“one couple, one child” policy, but you might
not know how ruthlessly officials have enforced
this policy. Steven Mosher (2006), an anthro-
pologist who did fieldwork in China, reports
that if a woman gets pregnant without govern-
ment permission (yes, you read that right!),
doctors abort the fetus—even if the woman is
nine months pregnant. The woman has no say
in the matter. After the birth of her first child,
each woman—whether she wants it or not—is
fitted with an IUD (intrauterine device). Every
three months, she must have a sonogram to