Page 3 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

加中金融

编辑寄语 Editor’s Message

多伦多的五月， 收拾好雪地靴就可以开冷空调了。这个五月，我们可能会错过樱花季节，却不会错过加
油站油价飙升的触目惊心。我们也许错过庆祝疫情后重启，但不会错过俄罗斯乌克兰的战争带给全世界
的惊恐；如果今年你开始投资，你不会错过一个接一个的不确定：就像五月初美联储的议息会议后的市
场反应。对此 IB Steve 称为科比的假动作。

但美联储的加息也不一定对抑制通胀真正起到作用，俄罗斯乌克兰的战争不断升级增加了市场的不确定
性，王勇陈秋雨梳理了地域战争到金融战争的演变风险。. 新一轮的地缘政治风险正在冲击全球经济。而
Bluebay 从另一个角度关注分析了大家关心的在美联储启动加息周期之际，新兴市场债务投资者怎样驾驭
逆风环境。

而作为新兴市场的经济动能的中国此刻遭遇自 2020 年疫情爆发以来的最大不确定性。“三重压力”之下
的中国经济何去何从，伍戈博士带来他的分析。

无论市场怎样动荡，总有安安静静做学问的。Tomiko 的清算模式推演和 CCFA 的风险小组会员专业分享
活动都是十足的干货分享。世界很多不确定，我们坚信并祈告和平。
It is finally May Toronto, so pack up your snow-boots and turn on your air-conditioner. We will likely miss the
cherry blossoms this month, but we won’t miss the higher gasoline prices. We may have not celebrated the
reopening of restaurants and general facilities, but we couldn’t avoid the panic brought on by the war in Ukraine.
If you started investing this year, you likely didn’t miss at all the constant economic surprises like the market
reaction after the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May. Interactive Broker’s Steve Sosnickcalled that a fake pump by
Kobe (RIP).

However, the Fed's interest rate hike may not have sufficiently put a leash on inflation. The escalating war
between Russia and Ukraine has increased the uncertainty of the supply in energy and resources, Wang Yong and
Chen Qiuyu from China has summarized the risks of geopolitical war as disruption on a wide range of industries,
including financials, supply chain etc.

A new round of geopolitical risks are hitting the global economy. Bluebay Asset Management’s Polina discusses
how emerging market debt investors can navigate headwinds as the Federal Reserve begins its interest rate hike
cycle.

China, the economic driver of emerging markets, is now facing the biggest challenge of uncertainties in growth
since the outbreak of pandemic in 2020. Dr. Wu Ge brought his insights on Economic trends under the “threefold”
pressure.

No matter how turbulent the market, there are always quiet scholars hard at work. Tomiko's demonstration of
clearing models and CCFA's recent panel on risk management highlighted the continuous learning and
professional development of the next generation of finance leaders.

The world is full of uncertainty. Stand firm with faith, we pray for peace.

Emily Gu

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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