Page 6 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

地缘热点 Geo Hotspots 加中金融

Risk Management Implicated from the Russia-Ukraine War

俄乌冲突的风险启示

Qiuyu Chen 陈秋雨 Founder of the R & S Technology 雨禾科技创始人

Yong Wang 王 勇 Chairman of TF International Securities 天风国际证券董事长

1. 前言. 从俄乌冲突到金融战

2022 年 2 月 21 日，俄罗斯总统普京宣布承认乌克兰东部的“顿涅茨克人民共和国”和“卢甘斯克人民共和国”为独立
国家，三天后，普京宣布在顿巴斯地区进行特别军事行动，俄乌冲突随之打响。

俄乌经过多次谈判均失败，而战争已持续了近三个月时间，随着芬兰表态申请加入北约，使得局势变得更加扑朔迷离。且
不论双方孰是孰非，乌俄战争这一客观事实导致了全球各个方面的连锁反应，一时间风起云涌。

尽管美国领导下的北约不敢贸然直接跟俄罗斯开战，但是却对俄罗斯进行了全方位制裁和围堵。俄罗斯也不甘示弱进行了
抵抗和反制裁，进而引发了金融战如火如荼。欧美对俄罗斯的制裁手段层出不穷，令人眼花缭乱。俄罗斯的反击手段更是
逐步升级，魔高一丈。两者的金融战涉及的领域囊括了能源、股票、黄金、利率、汇率、期货、国际支付、外汇、国债，
加密货币等市场，并对世界金融格局造成了很大的冲击。

2. 世界金融格局新动态
2.1. 世界结算体系的角逐

2 月 26 日，美欧联合声明禁止俄罗斯使用 SWIFT 体系，这意味着俄罗斯无法进行美元结算，也无法进行美元体系下的国
际贸易。短期内对俄罗斯的国际贸易和金融的冲击是非常剧烈和直接的，直接导致了俄罗斯卢布大幅贬值。到 3 月 7 号达
到贬值顶峰 1 美元兑换 154.25 卢布（图 1）。针对 SWIFT 的制裁，俄罗斯表示可能否定美元的合法货币地位，这意味着
美元不仅在俄罗斯国内无法使用，其他国家在于俄罗斯贸易中也不能使用。随后，普京宣布只能用卢布和黄金购买天然气，
俄罗斯卢布得以迅速升值。随着近期美联储加息，世界各主要国家的货币均对美元快速贬值（图 2-图 4）。而俄罗斯将每
克黄金与 5000 卢布绑定，以此固定汇率来稳定卢布汇率和金融体系，从而撕开了欧美金融制裁的口子，脱离了美元加息
的漩涡，走出了独立的行情。目前卢布汇率已经回升，甚至超过战前水平 。

1. Introduction From the Russia-Ukraine War to the Financial War

On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the
"Luhansk People's Republic" in eastern Ukraine as independent states.3 days later, he announced “a special military operations” in
the Donbas region, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began.

After multiple negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, no armistice has yet been reached, and the war has lasted for nearly three
months. With Finland's application to join NATO, the situation has become even more complicated and subtle. Regardless of the
views of the two sides, the Ukrainian-Russian war led to a stormy chain reaction in all aspects of the world.
Although NATO under the leadership of the United States did not rush to war with Russia directly, it imposed all-round sanctions
and dizzying containment on Russia. Not to be outdone, Russia resisted and countered sanctions, triggering a financial war in full
swing. The areas involved in the financial war between the two include energy, stocks, gold, interest rates, exchange rates, futures,
international payments, foreign exchange, national debt, cryptocurrencies and other markets, having had a great impact on the
world financial landscape.
2. New changes of the global financial landscape
2.1. Competition of the global settlement systems

On February 26, the United States and the European Union jointly announced that Russia was prohibited from using the SWIFT
system, which meant that Russia could not carry out US dollar settlements and international trade under the US dollar system. The
impact on Russia's international trade and finance in the short term has been very substantial and direct, including the sharp
depreciation of the Russian currency, Ruble. By March 7, the depreciation peaked at 154.25 Rubles per dollar (Figure 1). In response
to the SWIFT sanctions, Russia announced that it may deny the legal currency status of the US dollar, which means, if realized, that
the US dollar may not used in all trades with Russian in or outside Russia. Subsequently, Russian President Putin announced that
natural gas can only be purchased with Rubles and gold. As a result, the Ruble appreciated rapidly while, all major currencies in the
world have depreciated rapidly against the US dollar due to the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Figure 2-Figure 4).
Tearing open the financial sanctions of Europe and the United States, Russia pegs each gram of gold to 5,000 rubles with fixed
exchange rate to stabilize the Ruble exchange rate and financial system thus breaking away from the swirls of US dollar interest rate
hikes and stepping out as an independent market. The ruble exchange rate has now recovered, even surpassing pre-war levels.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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