Page 10 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

地缘热点 Geo Hotspots 加中金融

图 8 LME 镍交易的巨幅震荡

LME 历史悠久，一直以来都是国际金属定价中心。但这次它没有看到日益增加的风险规模，尽管 LME 宣称这次危机是因
为银行拒绝透露场外交易头寸而导致，但这也暴露了 LME 交易机制的缺陷：

1、没有大户报告制度，无法防止大户操纵市场的行为，对场内和场外交易头寸规模和风险积累没有进行联动检测；

2、价格没有涨跌停限制，导致在战争的背景下，两天暴涨 248%；

3、技术故障使得连续多个交易日均有超出限价区间的交易，LME 5 天均取消这部分交易，使 LME 名誉扫地；

4、 LME 合约直到到期日才结算，追加保证金追加也只是为浮亏提供准备金，并非将它当成已经实现了的亏损，这可能会
削弱了盈利一方的权益。

5、最后，与国内交易所每个合约固定交割日不同，LME 的交割日根据持仓时间不同有所区别：持仓在三个月内的，任何
一个交易日均可交割；持仓在 3-6 个月合约，交割日为每个星期三；6 个月以上的交割日为每个月第三个星期三。这种灵
活性使得交易所具有更大的旋转余地，但可能会遭受投资者法律诉讼。

一连串事件威胁到了 LME 在全球金属市场的主导地位，大量投资者迅速抛掉手中合约，导致 LME 未平仓量达到 15 年来最
低2。尽管美国 COMEX 交易所在国际上影响力也很大，但金属交易品种较少。因此，金属交易品种相对齐全的上海期货交
易所有望接棒 LME 成为下一个金属交易中心。

The LME has long been the center of international commodity futures trading. But it failed to manage the risks in this event. LME
data shows that before the incident, one company held 50%-80% of the long positions. It gradually increased its long positions, and
finally used futures and spot to squeeze positions. This exposed the flaws in the LME trading management system:

There is no reporting requirement for large accounts, so large players cannot be prevented from manipulating the market. There is
no detection mechanism for accumulated exposure of futures and OTC positions;
There is no price change limit, which led to a 248% surge in two days because of the war;

The technical glitches led to the execution of transactions which breached the price limit range for several consecutive trading days.
The LME had to cancel these transactions for 5 days, which undermines the credit of the LME;

The LME contract is not settled until the trade expiry, and the margin call only serves the purpose of covering the unrealized losses.
It is possible that the rights of investors with unrealized profit is protected properly.
Finally, unlike the fixed delivery date on Chinese domestic exchanges, the delivery date of LME varies according to the holding time
of the futures contract: if the contract is within three months, it can be delivered on any trading day; if the contract if 3-6 months,
the delivery day is every Wednesday; for contract more than 6 months, the delivery day is the third Wednesday of each month. This
flexibility gives exchanges more wiggle room, but may be subject to investor legal action.

A spate of events threatened the LME's dominance in the global metals futures market. Investors quickly dumped contracts, leading
to LME open interest to a 15-year low. Although the COMEX exchange in the United States also has a great international influence,
there are less trading products for metals.

2 数据来自新浪财经.
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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