Page 12 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

地缘热点 Geo Hotspots 加中金融

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图 9 俄罗斯 5 年期和 1 年期的主权 CDS
3.2. 股市风险防范

尽管中国一再强调中立态度，但战争依然祸及到了中国股市，港股，甚至在美的中概股也没有幸免。开战当天，上证指数
从 3474.37 最低跌到 3400.21，到了 16 号最低探底 3023.24，最大回撤达到 13%。而深证成指则达到 18%。港股更是跌跌不
休，过去三个月从最高点到最低点的跌幅为 41%。中概股在此前已经饱受折磨，受战争和美国《外国公司问责法案》出台
的影响，更是哀鸿遍野（图 10）。目前已有 40 家公司被列入预摘牌名单，百度、爱奇艺、微博等著名企业都在名单中。

因此，我们应运用大数据方法加强外资流向的监测和动态风险评估，加强境外交易对手的研究，模拟被攻击的场景和制定
应对方案，同时培养风险管控科技人才，并且利用舆论正确引导股民避免踩踏。另外，关系到国内重大数据安全的企业应
该考虑逐步回归港股上市，规避外国审计风险。

3.2. Risk management for equity markets

Despite China's repeated emphasis on neutrality, the equity market in mainland China and Hong Kong and Chinese companies listed
in the US were affected. On the day when the war started, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 3474.37 to 3400.21. It reached
a minimum of 3023.24 on the 16th, a 13% of retreat. The retreat of Shenzhen Component Index was 18%. Hong Kong stocks fell
even more, with a drop of 41% from the highest point in the past three months. The Chinese concept stocks listed in the US have
been beaten down before. This time the performance of these stock become worse, as both the war and the introduction of the
"Foreign Company Accountability Act" in the United States (Figure 10). Five companies are currently at risk of being forced to delist.

Therefore, we should apply big data algorithms to strengthen the monitor of foreign capital flows, enhance the dynamic risk
assessment, strengthen research on foreign counterparties, design and simulate the scenarios of possible attacks and
countermeasures, at the same time train the risk management talents. It is also important to use public opinion to guide market
stakeholders. In addition, companies that possess sensitive domestic data should consider gradually return to the Hong Kong stock
market to avoid foreign audit risks.

图 10 与中国相关的股市走势
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3 数据和图表来源于彭博数据库
4 数据和图表来源于 Investing.com
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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