Page 14 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

新兴市场 EM Markets 加中金融

When old patterns break, opportunities emerge

Why challenging market conditions mean it is precisely the right time to invest

打破陈旧模式，机会应运而生

为什么严峻的市场环境意味着现在正是投资的最佳时机

Polina Kurdyavko, Head of Emerging Markets at RBC Global Asset Management, BlueBay
Asset Management

BlueBay 资产管理公司 RBC Global Asset Management 新兴市场主管

There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen. As we write, a new wave of geopolitical risk is
hitting the global economy as the Russia/Ukraine conflict escalates. Investors are also battling growing inflationary pressures, while
the US Federal Reserve embarks on a rate-hiking cycle. Emerging market (EM) debt investors approach this landscape having been
operating in pandemic-driven fear mode for the past 12 months, as evidenced by negative index returns across most EM assets.

Do today’s headwinds mean they should steer clear for another 12 months?

The EM investment landscape – is ‘fear mode’ still justified?

With headlines reporting multiple unexpected or unlikely risk – so-called ‘fat-tail’ events – it is easy to have an emotional response as
an investor. But instead of reaching for the panic button, our approach is to step back and consider the facts:

 What is being priced into risk-asset valuations?
 How can we think about these events in terms of downside and upside?
 How can we make an objective assessment on what has already been priced in?
 Are there potentially opportunities that other investors are discounting?
 Where are the real risks – and do they indicate investors should stay on the sidelines?

有时候几十年什么都没发生，也有时候几周却什么都发生了。就在我们写这篇文章的时候，随着俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突的升
级，新一轮的地缘政治风险正在冲击全球经济。在美联储启动加息周期之际，投资者还在与日益加大的通胀压力作斗争。
而与此期间的过去 12 个月，新兴市场债务投资者一直处于受疫情影响的恐慌下，大部分新兴市场资产的收益为负。今天
的逆风是否意味着未来 12 个月内应该避开?

新兴市场投资格局——“恐惧模式”仍然合理吗

新闻头条报道了许多个意外风险或小概率事件——所谓的“肥尾”极端震荡行情——作为投资者很容易产生情绪反应。但
我们的方法不是按下恐慌按钮，而是后退一步，考虑事实:

 风险资产估值中什么已经被计价在内?
 我们如何从负面和正面的角度看待这些行情?
 我们如何对已经计入的价格做出客观评估?
 是否有其他投资者低估的潜在机会?
 真正的风险在哪里?是否提示投资者应该保持观望?

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
Page 14 第14页