Page 18 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

新兴市场 EM Markets 加中金融

Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa (CEEMA)

If we look at default risk across CEEMEA based on macroeconomic fundamentals and debt ratios, the region appears well placed to
ride out a period of higher US and global rates. The Arab states that make up the GCC region are most favourably positioned given
this trend comes amid a period of elevated oil and energy prices and an unprecedented era of fiscal reforms across the region.

Central and Eastern Europe benefit from relatively low leverage, high nominal GDP growth and strong EU support via various Covid
support programmes, which significantly underpin financing needs across the region. Further east, the former Soviet states
(Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan) generally have lower public sector debt/GDP ratios and large sovereign wealth buffers.

As also seen in Latin America, the main challenge for some CEEMA countries comes not from higher US rates but unorthodox policy
choices. Turkey presents a clear case study.

In theory, Turkey benefits from a favourable public finance profile, with a public sector debt/GDP ratio of less than 40%. However, its
external financing position is challenging, with annual gross external financing needs of close to USD200bn. The current unorthodox
policy setting – minus 22% real policy rates – raises the risk of further capital flight. And with limited FX reserve cover, the system
becomes acutely vulnerable.

Tighter global financing conditions could reduce roll-over ratios on some of Turkey’s USD180bn worth of short-term debt and risk
turning a currency devaluation story into a broader, systemic crisis and place additional stress on the banking sector. Higher global
rates would make an already difficult situation that much more challenging. While higher core rates may not be the cause of a systemic
crisis, they could easily prove to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

It’s likely that most SSA issuers will be able to see out higher borrowing costs in 2022 without defaulting, but for some countries this
should not be a foregone conclusion. Debt sustainability is one of many challenges; those SSA countries with the highest debt burdens
and policy inaction could face a tough choice between enacting difficult policy measures and heightened external liquidity pressure.
International bi-lateral and IMF support will be key in Tunisia and Egypt.
中东欧、中东和非洲(CEEMA)

如果我们根据宏观经济基本面和债务比率来审视整个 CEEMEA 的违约风险，就会发现该地区似乎能够安然度过美国和全球
利率走高的一段时期。鉴于这一趋势的出现，海湾合作委员会地区的阿拉伯国家处于最有利的地位。目前，该地区的石油
和能源价格处于上涨阶段，整个地区正进入前所未有的财政改革时期。

中欧和东欧受益于相对较低的杠杆率、较高的名义 GDP 增长以及欧盟通过各种新冠支持计划提供的强有力支持，这些支
持显著支撑了整个地区的融资需求。再往东，前苏联国家(哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆和乌兹别克斯坦)的公共部门债务/GDP 比
率普遍较低，主权财富缓冲也较大。

与拉丁美洲的情况一样，一些 CEEMA 国家面临的主要挑战并非来自美国加息，而是非正统的政策选择。土耳其是一个明
确的案例研究。

从理论上讲，土耳其受益于良好的公共财政状况，公共部门债务/GDP 比率不到 40%。然而，其外部融资状况具有挑战性，
每年的外部融资总需求接近 2000 亿美元。当前非正统的政策设定——实际政策利率为- 22%——增加了进一步资本外逃的
风险。由于外汇储备不足，金融体系变得非常脆弱。

全球融资环境趋紧，可能会降低土耳其 1800 亿美元短期债务中部分债务的展期比率，并有可能将货币贬值演变为一场更
广泛的系统性危机，给银行业带来额外压力。更高的全球利率将使本已困难的形势更具挑战性。虽然较高的核心利率可能
不是系统性危机的原因，但他们很容易成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。

撒哈拉以南非洲地区(SSA)

大多数 SSA 发行方很可能在 2022 年能够
在不违约的情况下承受更高的借贷成
本，但对一些国家来说，得不到同样的
结论。债务可持续性是众多挑战之一; 那
些债务负担最高、政策不作为的南部非
洲国家可能面临一个艰难的选择——是
实施困难的政策措施，还是增加外部流
动性压力。国际双边援助和国际货币基
金组织的支持对突尼斯和埃及至关重
要。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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