Page 23 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

加中金融 新兴市场 EM Markets

2. Illiquid loans

The latest addition to the EM fixed income product set – EM illiquid loans should also do well in the current environment. These are
senior secured loans that are sold at distressed valuations because the issuing bank is going through a liquidity squeeze, rather than
needing to dispose of the asset because of a credit quality concern. Investors can earn an illiquidity premium as a result, rather than
be paid to take on additional credit risk for buying loans below par. The lock-up nature of the loans protect investors against
redemption risks, so the strategies don’t have to crystallise mark-to-market losses or take duration bets.

It is also worth noting that, because these loans are predominately issued as a floating-rate instruments, they offer protection against
higher rates.

3. Unconstrained

Unconstrained strategies capture a degree of market beta, so they are unlikely to match the double-digit return potential of illiquid
loans and absolute return approaches across 2022. However, unconstrained strategies aim to harness the leading ideas across the
hard and local currency EM universe. We feel the current environment provides a rich, uncorrelated opportunity set across both
markets.

4. Hard currency aggregate

While the beta environment is expected to remain fairly muted through 2022, EM’s rich landscape should offer plenty of opportunities
for portfolio differentiation by region and sector. A high conviction active management approach spanning the sovereign and
corporate universe can take advantage of macro inputs to deliver constructive return potential.

我们认为有四种方法非常适合当前的市场环境。

1.绝对回报

对于那些希望充分利用市场波动性和回报潜力的人来说，我们认为绝对回报策略是最合适的工具。它们允许投资者通过做
空现金信贷头寸以及持有多头来利用信贷的负面变动。它们还可以减轻利率风险和久期问题。如果您希望在下行和上行中
利用厚尾，那么绝对回报方法是唯一可以实现这一目标的方法。

2.非流动性贷款

新兴市场固定收益产品组合的最新成员——新兴市场非流动性贷款在当前环境下也应该表现良好。这些是高级担保贷款，
由于发行银行正在经历流动性紧缩，而不是因为信贷质量问题需要处置资产，因此以不良估值出售。因此，投资者可以获
得非流动性溢价，而不是因购买低于面值的贷款而承担额外的信用风险。贷款的锁定期特性保护投资者免受赎回风险，因
此这些策略不必具体化盯市损失或进行久期押注。

同样值得注意的是，由于这些贷款主要作为浮动利率工具发行，因此它们为利率上升提供保护。
3.不受约束

不受约束的策略会获得一定程度的市场贝塔，因此它们在 2022 一整年中不太可能达到非流动性贷款和绝对回报策略的两
位数的潜在回报。然而，不受约束的策略旨在利用硬通货和本地货币新兴市场领域的领先理念。我们认为当前的环境为两
个市场提供了丰富且不相关的一系列机会。

4.硬通货总量

尽管 beta 环境在 2022 年预计将保持相当低迷，但新兴市场的丰富形势会为不同地区和行业的投资组合提供大量机会。跨
越主权和企业领域的高信念主动管理方法可以利用宏观投入带来建设性的回报潜力。

From fear mode to focus mode – investing with a clear head

The investor pendulum tends to swing at a relatively fast pace between greed and fear. While there are challenges ahead, pressing
the panic button on EM and withdrawing from the market to sit on the sidelines until the dust settles is likely to result in missing the
opportunity. Indeed, it is usually when sentiment is cautious, and investors can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel that the
opportunity set in EM tends to be most attractive. The fight or flight response is helpful when faced with a physical threat but going
into panic mode when it comes to EM investing tends to yield higher transaction costs, not higher returns.

As one seasoned investor once said, “In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable”.

从恐惧模式到专注模式——用清醒的头脑投资

投资者的钟摆往往在贪婪和恐惧之间快速摆动。尽管前方仍存在挑战，但在新兴市场按下恐慌按钮并退出市场，观望直到
尘埃落定，可能会导致错失良机。事实上，当市场情绪谨慎且投资者看不到隧道尽头的曙光时，新兴市场的机会往往最具
吸引力。当面临实际威胁时，战斗或逃跑反应是有益的，但在新兴市场投资时，进入恐慌模式往往会产生更高的交易成本，
而不是更高的回报。

正如一位经验丰富的投资者曾经说过的那样，“在投资中，舒适的东西很少能盈利”。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
Page 23 第23页