Page 28 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

宏观经济 Macro Economics 加中金融

冰冻三尺，非一日之寒。疫情的反复及随时可能引致的管控，明显扰乱了微观主体对未来的预期，进而对其经济行为产生
“累积效果”或“疤痕效应”。今年一季度的居民储蓄意愿达到历史最高，超过武汉封城、次贷危机、欧债危机等重大事
件时期。

Rome was not built in a day. Outbreaks repeatedly and could lead to control at any time, obviously affect the future expectations
and the economic behavior of "cumulative effect" or "scar effect". In the first quarter of this year's household savings hit an all-time
high, well above the Wuhan lockdown time, the subprime crisis, the European debt crisis, and other market risk events.

外因，当然重要

既然谈及跨境资本流动，外部因素固然是重要的。根据当前市场一致性预期，美联储二季度有望连续 2 次实施分别不低于
50bp 的加息。美东时间 5 月 4 日，美联储宣布加息 50 个基点。此外，其年内缩表规模或接近上一轮缩表总规模，大致相
当于加息 75bp，而这未必是市场充分预期的。中美政策利差将确定性地明显收窄甚至倒挂，预示着短期资本流出的压力。
内因，更为关键

外因是条件，内因是根本，辩证法同样适用于我们对于资本流动的理解。从国内情况看，当前影响经济运行最关键因素是
疫情。“动态清零”之下，各地趋于更早介入、更严管控。当前全国 300 余地级以上城市中约有 48 城处于不同程度的封
控状态，其中 33 城处于局部管控，15 城的主城区甚至全域处于管控状态。

近期政策着力疏通物流堵点，但港口拥堵、公路货运等指标仍接近疫情爆发以来的最差状况，过去两年我国具有优势的外
贸供应链也受到冲击。相较而言，海外疫情管控措施持续放松，我国出口份额及增速的回落或将更为迅速。这些经济基本
面更能诠释当下资本流动的格局。

External factors matters, of course

From a cross-border capital activity perspective,, external factors matters. Current market expected FED to carry out two
consecutive rate hikes of no less than 50bp in the second quarter. On May 4th the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise
interest rates by 50 basis points. In addition, the size of the balance sheet reduction this year may be close to the total size of the
previous round, which is roughly equivalent to a 75bp interest rate hike that is not necessarily priced in by the market. Policy
spreads between China and the US will definitely narrow down, indicating short-term capital outflow pressure.

Internal factors are more critical

Domestically, the internal factors are most crucial. "dynamic reset" tends to be early intervention and strict controls. At present,
about 48 cities in China with more than 300 lean-level are under lockdown control to varying degrees, among which 33 cities are
under partial control, and 15 cities' main urban areas or even the whole region are under lockdown control.

While recent policy focused on keeping logistics plugging point clear, port congestion, road freight transport and other indicators
are still close to the worst since the outbreak began. In the past two years, supply chain issues resulted in a negative impact on
foreign trade. By contrast, overseas outbreak controls continue to relax, The contract in China’s export sector will accelerate. The
pattern of economic fundamentals can be used to explain the current capital flows.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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