Page 27 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 Macro Economics

疫情峰值过后，经济将如何？

在“动态清零”不变的前提下，更早介入、更严管控对疫情峰值及其持续时间的压降效果更显著，上海、深圳、吉林、天
津等已有对比印证。鉴于此，近期各地防控措施明显收紧。4 月份以来除上海外的全国新增疫情虽不断回落，但出行受阻
的城市数量却较 3 月继续上升。即便尚未出现明显新增病例的省市，也加强辖区内外的人员流动管控，多地还提升了核酸
检测次数、申请报备期限等标准。

历史可见，一旦疫情峰值过后，经济往往出现阶段性反弹。如，深圳 3 月下旬“解封”以来，其商品房成交显著反弹，同
比增长约 18%，为去年 10 月以来最高。对于资本市场而言，每轮疫情峰值的筑顶回落时，风险偏好也往往会出现一定程
度的修复。

Economy after the Peak of Pandemic

With the "dynamic zero clearance" approach remains unchanged, people believe that control at an earlier date will be more
effective, as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Jilin and Tianjin had proved. As a result, recent prevention and control measures have been
tightened significantly. Since April, the newly infected cities reported less except Shanghai, but the cities with travel restrictions
increased compared with March. Even those provinces and cities without much new cases have decided to tighten controls on
people’s entering and existing the jurisdictions, and many have raised standards on testing validation.

History shows that once the pandemic eases from the peak, the economy often rebounds in stages. Shenzhen, for example, has
seen a significant rebound in residential property transactions since its relieve in late March, up about 18 per cent year on year and
the highest since October. For the capital market, as each round outbreak eases, the risk appetite also tends to recovery.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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