Page 29 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 Macro Economics

展望未来，国内经济加速探底，海外流动性剧烈收缩，二季度也许是内外交集最为严峻的时期。此后若疫情削弱，稳增长
进一步体现，资本流出压力或将缓解。值得一提的是，本轮贬值中人民币汇率似更灵活，在一定程度上能对冲负向冲击。
Looking forward the domestic economy has accelerated to bottom out, and overseas liquidity has contracted sharply. The second
quarter may be the most severe period both domestically and internationally. If the pandemic weakens and the growth is steady,
the pressure on capital outflow may ease. It is worth mentioning that the RMB exchange rate seems to be more flexible in this
round of devaluation, which can hedge against negative shocks to a certain extent.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
Page 29 第29页