Page 25 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 Macro Economics

内需方面，近期中国疫情管控程度达到新冠爆发以来最高水平。PMI 生产项弱于季节性的程度已超去年能耗双控最强期，
货运物流量、上市公司停产数、居民储蓄意愿等指标表明经济正面临 2020 年初以来最严峻的探底过程。房地产加速纠偏，
基建进一步发力。一旦管控松绑，内需有望阶段性反弹，但病毒强传染性及其严控显著增加经济的不确定性。

价格方面，全球遭遇上世纪 70 年代以来最严重的供给冲击。第二大原油输出国俄罗斯的原油出口已大幅低于历史同期，
欧佩克仍无明显增产，页岩油产能短期难有突破。第二大粮食出口国乌克兰播种面积减少约 30%，多国开始管控粮食出口。
能源、有色及农产品价格仍存上行风险。我国难独善其身，预计 PPI 环比涨幅扩大，CPI 同比下半年将提速。

政策方面，美联储加息缩表容易引致中国资本流出并累积人民币贬值压力，或在一定程度上制约中国利率工具的使用空间，
这也使得倚赖更广泛的政策组合来对冲经济下行压力成为可能。近期票据利率抬升预示信贷投放边际改善。今年财政发力
明显前置，政府债券发行保持较快进度。土地出让收入明显下滑，但去年财政结余等将支撑地方财政支出扩张。

Domestic demand, China’s control has recently reached the highest level since the outbreak of COVID-19. The weaker than usual PMI
production and indicators such as energy consumption, freight flow, the number of listed companies suspending production and
households' willingness to save suggested that the economy is facing the bottom-out since the beginning of 2020. The real estate
market continues correction and infrastructure-related investment may again become the economy booster once the restriction
eases. Domestic demand is expected to rebound quickly. However, the measures of related pandemic restrictions may also increase
the uncertainty of growth.

Prices, the world has suffered its worst supply shock since the 1970s. As the second largest oil exporting country, Russia’s oil exports
have been substantially below historical level during the same period. OPEC still has no intention to increase production, and shale
oil production capacity is difficult to break through in the short term. The planting area of Ukraine, the second largest grain exporter,
has decreased by about 30%, and many countries have begun to control grain exports. Upside risks remain for energy, nonferrous
metals and agricultural product prices. China is hard to stay out of the way, with PPI inflation expected to expand month-on-month
and CPI to pick up in the second half of the year.
Policy, the Fed raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet will easily lead to capital outflows from China and accumulate
pressure on RMB depreciation, or restrict the use of domestic interest rate tools to a certain extent, which also makes it possible to
rely on a broader policy mix to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. The recent rise in bill rates indicates a marginal
improvement in credit availability. This year’s fiscal stimulus measures were implemented obviously ahead of schedule, and the
issuance of government bonds has maintained a relatively rapid progress. Revenue from land sales has declined significantly, but the
fiscal balance of last year will support the expansion of local fiscal expenditures.

这波疫情，管控措施有何变化？

与过往几轮疫情显著不同，本轮奥密克戎毒株确实呈现传染性增强、致死率下降的病理学特征。据英国统计局等机构测算，
奥密克戎的传染性约为流感 10 倍、德尔塔毒株 2-3 倍，但其致死率较德尔塔毒株下降约 67%。

How have the control measures changed in this wave of pandemic?

Significantly different from previous outbreaks, the omicron strain does show pathological features of increased infectivity and
reduced mortality. According to the UK Statistics office and other institutions, omicron is about 10 times more infectious than the flu
and two to three times more infectious than the Delta strain, but its death rate is about 67% lower than the Delta strain.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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