Page 24 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

宏观经济 Macro Economics 加中金融

“三重压力”之下的中国经济走向

Economic trends under the “threefold pressure”

伍戈博士，长江证券首席经济学家。曾长期任职中国央行货币政策部门，并在国际货币基金
组织担任经济学家。中国经济学最高奖—孙冶方经济科学奖获得者，曾获浦山政策研究奖和
刘诗白经济学奖，蝉联“远见杯”中国经济与全球市场预测双冠军。

About the author. Dr. Ge Wu, Chief Economist of Changjiang Securities, has long served in the
central bank's monetary policy department, and served as an economist in the International
Monetary Fund. The winner of the Sun Yefang Economics Award, the highest award in Chinese
economics; the Pushan Policy Research Award and the Liu Shibai Economics Award, etc.

2021 年年末，中国中央经济工作会议指出了中国经济面临 “三重压力”：一是供给冲击，二是需求收缩，三是预期转弱。
如今，2022 年进入第二季度，这三个方面有没有改善的迹象？是朝着我们预期的方向在走，还是超乎预期？

疫情再袭，似曾相识又如此陌生

海外方面，防疫管控明显放松，经济修复持续。美国失业率降至疫前，欧洲则创历史新低。俄乌冲突缓和但制裁犹在，全
球供应链紧张。美国通胀创 40 年新高，欧洲已是历史最高。市场隐含的美、欧央行今年加息次数提升为 9 次和 2 次，流
动性加速收紧。值得关注的是，海外开始担心疫情持续扰动下中国供应链的稳定性，或将对外贸外资产生影响。

经济下行与通胀上升并存，“滞胀”风险凸现，但通胀更是主要矛盾。美国一季度经济增速转负，仍不改其 5、6 月份大
幅加息步伐甚至叠加缩表操作，美元指数创近 20 年来新高。
At the end of the year of 2021, China's central economic work conference pointed out that China's economy faces "a threefold
pressure" : A, the supply shock; B the contraction of demand; and C, the weakening of expectations. Today, as we move into the
second quarter of 2022, are there any signs of improvement on all three fronts? Is it moving in the direction we expected, or against
what we thought?

The pandemic strikes again, what a strange feeling of déjà vu!

Overseas, pandemic prevention controls much looser, ongoing economic repairs. Unemployment in the United States has fallen to
pre-pandemic levels, while in Europe it is at a record low. Russia-Ukraine conflict eased but sanctions remained, straining global supply
chains. Inflation is at a 40-year high in the US and an all-time high in Europe. Market anticipates American and the European central
bank will raise interest rates this year 9 times and 2 times, respectively. The action will accelerate the tightening of liquidity. What is
noteworthy is that overseas people are beginning to worry about the potential impact on foreign trade and investment that the
continued disturbance of the epidemic may have on stability of China’s supply chain.
Slowdown economy and "stagflation"? Will Q1 U.S. negative growth change the pace of continuing interest hike? No matter what,
the dollar index hits the 20 years record high.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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