Page 13 - CCFA Journal - Seventh Issue

加中金融 地缘热点 Geo Hotspots

3.3. 衍生品风险防范
在这次伦敦金属交易所镍期货大战中， LME 的百年声誉却毁于一旦。从交易所角度，以下几点风险需要谨防：

1、场外头寸监管穿透问题。LME 宣称这次镍期货风险是来自于场外市场，是因为银行拒绝透露场外头寸的情况。因此，
交易所应对场外头寸和现货市场情况建立联动检测机制。

2、监管反应时效问题。3 月 7 号镍期货合约已经一飞冲天，涨幅达到 74%。到了 8 号，涨幅突破 110%。但是 LME 一直到
8 号晚间才发布公告取消部分交易，反应速度迟钝。应建设大数据人工智能检测系统，在交易异常时候及时做出反应，最
大限度减少不利影响。

3、制度完善的问题。LME 将市场的稳定寄托于交易者的自律是不稳妥的，需要制度层面来约束人性的贪婪。对重要的生
产资料在海外衍生品交易中，应从行业角度出台管理制度，避免悲剧重演。

上海期货交易所要成为全球金属交易定价中心，还需要做好以下几个方面：

1、海外交割仓库的建设。要成为国际定价中心，吸引国外的交易者，中国需要在海外布局交割仓库，但是目前还没有海
外交割仓库。

2、增加国际交易品种。目前金属交易只有国际铜，因此需要大力开发新的国际金属品种。另外，还需增设海外市场拓展
部，加大海外交易者市场宣传和培育。
我们期待和平，也为乌克兰、俄罗斯和其他地区饱受战争之苦的人们祈祷！

3.3. Risk management of derivatives markets

The LME's century-old reputation was ruined in this nickel trading chaos. From the perspective of both investors and the exchange,
it has triggered our review on about risk management of the derivatives markets.

From the perspective of exchanges, the following risks need to be considered carefully:
1. The penetration of the OTC positions. The LME said that the nickel futures risk was from the OTC market because banks refused
to disclose the status of their OTC positions. The lack of detection mechanism for OTC positions and spot market conditions lead
to high risks.
2. The slow response of the exchange. The nickel futures contract skyrocketed rising 74% on March 7 and increased further to
110% on March 8. However, the response of the LME was slow. It did not issue an announcement to cancel some transactions
until the evening of the 8th. A big data AI detection system should be built to respond in a timely manner when transactions
are abnormal.
3. The problem of the regulatory system. It is not safe for the LME to rely on the self-discipline of market participants for the
stability of the market. It needs the institutional level to manage the greed of human nature. A robust regulatory system should
be introduced by the industry to prevent market disruption at this scale from happening again.

The following aspects should be done well, if the Shanghai Futures Exchange intends to replace the LME and become the global
metal trading pricing center:

1. Construction of oversea delivery warehouses. To become an international commodity trading center and attract foreign traders,
Chinese exchanges need to have warehouses overseas, but currently there none.
2. Increase the internationally traded commodity products. At present, only copper and aluminum are traded internationally. It is
necessary to add more products. In addition, it is necessary to add an overseas market development department to promote
market and attract of international market participants.
3. Increase the trading of non-fungible digital assets. Based on the blockchain non-fungible (NFT) technology, the central bank's
digital currency DCEP, and the real rights and interests of the physical assets, gradually launch the sandbox exercise of digital
asset trading. Under the legal and regulatory compliance, attract capital inflow and train talents in blockchain from practice.

We hope for peace and pray for the war-torn people in Ukraine, Russia and beyond!
Reference

[1] Cristina Criddle and Joshua Oliver,“How Ukraine embraced cryptocurrencies in response to war”，. 2022.3

[2] Helen Thomas,“Nickel ‘Big Shot’ shows metals market desperately needs overhaul”，
https://www.ft.com/content/867c53b5-3016-4008-9c48-308a9dea09a3.2022.3

[3] Neil Hume and Hudson Lockett, “Chinese metals tycoon faces steep losses on nickel price surge”，
https://www.ft.com/content/0269cdda-ef67-43c8-b820-a919c919b5fa. 2022.3

[4] 陈凯丰，从俄乌冲突后的金融市场定价变动来分析国家风险水平，新浪财经，2022.3
[5] 陈植，LME：镍逼空源自场外交易，第一财经，2022.3

[6] 王勇、关晶奇和隋鹏达，金融风险管理，机械工业出版社，2020.
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE May 2022
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