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Expected values for mobile operator license in Chininsia : APPENDIX 8

(all figures S$ millions)

2.1 Situation 1: If bidding rules stay the same

Acquire Acquire Expected Value Bid direct & Bid direct & Expected
CloudNet & CloudNet & (Acquire Loose Win Value (Direct
Loose Win CloudNet & Tender)
Tender)
Acquisition price (2700) (2700) - -
Tender (5) (5) (15) (15)
preparation
costs
Tender amount - (2,550) - (4.335)
NPV of future 1,710 6,262 - 4,552
cash flows
NPV of Decision (995) 1,007 (15) 202
Probability 60% 40% 60% 40%
Expected (597) 403 (194) (9) 80 71.80
Values

2.1 Situation 2: If bidding rules change

Acquire Acquire Expected Value Bid direct & Bid direct & Expected
CloudNet & CloudNet & (Acquire Loose Win Value (Direct
Loose Win CloudNet & Tender)
Tender)
Acquisition price (2700) (2700) - -
Tender (5) (5) (15) (15)
preparation
costs
Tender amount - (2,550) - (4.335))

NPV of future 1,710 6,262 - 4,552
cash flows
NPV of Decision (995) 1,007 (15) 202
Probability 40% 60% 96% 4%
Expected (398) 604 206 (14) 8 (7)
Values

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