Page 63 - University English for non-speacalist

An optimist’s view of tourism’s future

(I) One does not have to be an optimist to believe that international tourism will grow
substantially over this century. As tourism has expanded in the latter half of the twentieth
century it has been accused of many things: despoiler of environments, destroyer of cultures
and exploiter of poor nations. Tourism, it is claimed, ultimately destroys the attractive features
of a place and thus can neither sustain its resource base nor itself as an industry in the long
term.

(II)It is possible, however, to regard tourism’s future growth as not only assured but also highly
desirable. Tourism will continue to grow, the challenges consequently presented can be met,
and the ultimate outcome will be positive, depending on how well both the tourism industry and
governments respond to those challenges. A glance at the recent past reveals a remarkable
increase in international tourist arrivals from 25 million in 1950 to 664 million in 1999, an
average annual growth rate of 7% . By 2020 international arrivals are predicted to reach 1.18
billion, representing an average annual growth rate of 4.1%. Such forecasts seem reasonable
given the likelihood that the forces driving past growth will continue for the foreseeable future:
faster, larger aircraft leading to lower real travel costs; more widespread wealth in a greater

62