Page 36 - STRATEGY Magazine (G)

Is a Storm Brewing for
Latin America?
Home to nearly 600 million people, Latin America has long relied on its abundant natural wealth for both subsistence and export. A growing population combined with the reality of global climate change forces a re-examination of traditional land-use policies and development methods.
Changing rainfall patterns, bleached coral reefs, glaciers melt- ing in the Andes—the early symptoms of climate change are already obvious in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). How will these changes affect land use and economic develop- ment? Planners look at a changing planet and try to predict the impact of rising temperatures and more volatile weather patterns.
While much modern science predicts that global tempera- tures may rise by an average of about 2°C, recent studies suggest that they might increase about twice as much, or by as much as 4°C, by the end of the 21st century. Increases in tem-
perature are projected to vary in different parts of Latin Amer- ica. In what’s known as the high-emissions scenario, nearly all the land area will experience highly unusual heat extremes in the summer; these extremes will be unprecedented in nearly three-fourths of the land area. The costs of this change are estimated at anywhere from 1.5 to 5 percent of GDP across the region. Jorge Familiar, the Vice President of the World Bank for Latin America and the Caribbean, estimates, for instance, that Mexico may see a decrease of 3.5 to 4 percent in GDP that can be attributed solely to climate change. The Inter-Ameri- can Development Bank (IADB) predicts that the LAC region
“Past emissions have set an unavoidable course of warming over the next two decades, which will affect the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people the most. We can- not continue down the current path of unchecked, growing emissions.” —World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim
The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) predicts that the LAC region may see damages on a yearly basis of up to US $100 billion by 2050 from flooding, drought, dis- appearing glacial runoff, and reduced crop yields.