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“Failure to act now on clear early warning signs could lead to far greater economic and social disruption in the mid-term, creating unparalleled challenges for Latin America’s leadership.”
may see damages on a yearly basis of up to US $100 billion by 2050 from flooding, drought, disappearing glacial runoff, and reduced crop yields.
POSITIVE SOCIAL CHANGE THREATENED
For the time in its history, the LAC region has seen the middle class grow to surpass the number of those in poverty. Extreme poverty has been cut in half since 2003, and progress continues. This historic achievement is significant for a region that has long been associated with inequality of wealth, particularly when other parts of the world are becoming more unequal. These positive changes may be in jeopardy, however, from climate change. As the World Bank’s Familiar puts it, “Climate change is not only an environmental challenge; it is a fundamental threat to Latin America’s development that risks undoing the hard-won achievements of the recent decades.”
WHAT CHANGES ARE IN STORE?
Again, models vary, with two primary scenarios, the low-emis- sions model and the high-emissions model, dominating discus- sion. But here are some of the predicted changes:
Almost all countries will experience a drastic shift in precipitation. Some will see increases of anywhere from 10 to 30 percent. Others will undergo periods of drought typically only forecast every 700 years.
Sea levels will rise throughout the region. Freshwater aquifers near the coast may be infiltrated and ruined by salt water.
Changes in climate will act as a threat multiplier as massive areas are deforested, especially in the Amazon Basin. The onslaught of extractive industries in the LAC region, plus the endless pressure of subsistence and industrial agriculture, threatens a water supply that is already under pressure from climate change.
Farming, one of the mainstays of Latin America’s economy, employs millions while feeding the growing population and accounts for about a quarter of the region’s GDP. In a series
of mostly negative impacts from climate change, one study anticipates a rising occurrence of heat stress for maize and soybeans, while another estimates crop yield de- clines worldwide of 3 to 8 percent for every 1°C rise in the mean global temperature.
One of the bright spots in a review of the impact of climate change on crops and yields is the anticipated increase in rice production. With the exception of Brazil, Mexico, and the Caribbean, projections for 2020 and 2050
both suggest that rice yields will increase. Current growing temperatures for Latin American rice are suboptimal, and
an increase in mean temperature would benefit production. Likewise, it is thought that climate change will produce an environment that is less hospitable to some of the diseases that afflict rice.
Livestock numbers are expected to be stressed, as heat and lack of water reduce the sustainable number of cattle, chicken, and pigs. Sheep, however, may fare bet- ter in a world with higher temperatures and less water.
The impact on fisheries is not well understood. One hypothesis holds that fisheries’ productivity will decrease in response to higher ocean temperatures. Studies over
the past 60 years, though, have shown no significant change in the ocean’s surface temperature in the region of the Humboldt Current System off the coast of Peru and Chile; other research suggests that productivity actually increases during periods of higher temperatures. On the other hand, there is less disagree- ment over the impact on fisheries of increasing levels of CO2, which negatively impacts calcification, growth, abundance, and survival of marine organisms.
AVOIDANCE AND MITIGATION
The countries that make up LAC are at a crossroads and must take action, both individually and together, to mitigate the ef- fects of climate change. Land- and water-use policies and prac- tices need to be examined closely to prepare for the anticipated decline in the availability of water for residential, agricultural, and industrial use. Highly efficient irrigation systems need to be planned and established now, before the more devastating effects of increased temperatures and reduced rainfall deci- mate crops. New crops should be selected with an eye to their hardiness in the face of increased temperatures and drought; likewise, development of new strains of existing crops should focus on the same qualities. The IADB posits that the costs
to adapt to climate change may be relatively small—as little
as one tenth the projected impact of US $100 billion per year, according to a joint study from the bank, the Economic Com- mission of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and the World Wildlife Fund.
Familiar contends that the LAC region “has become a hotbed of innovation,” as it focuses investment on clean energy and green transportation systems, not to mention mitigation in the form of environmental services and forest conservation. Indi- vidual countries are taking the challenge seriously; Mexico, for instance, plans to use 35 percent renewable energy by 2024. Employing agricultural practices that are sensitive to climate change offers the region the ability to manage risks to produc- tivity while ensuring food security and continuing to act as a regional—and perhaps global—supplier of food.
Over the next few decades, the rest of the world is certain to look to the LAC region, with its vast undeveloped lands and abundance of natural resources, as a source of food and other commodities. Climate change is projected to have a dramatic impact on LAC’s agriculture during that period, so it is crucial to start formulating and implementing response strategies now. Otherwise, the question will not be how much Latin America can help feed the rest of the world, but whether or not it is even capable of feeding its own people.
{See Impacts & Risks Chart: pg. 36}
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