Page 34 - Bloomberg Businessweek July 2018

Bloomberg Businessweek July 2, 2018
The Brexit Short Private polls and a timely concession

from the face of Leave allowed
hedge funds to make millions off the
collapse of the pound

By Cam Simpson, Gavin Finch,
and Kit Chellel
Photo illustrations by Bráulio Amado

AT 10 P.M. ON JUNE 23, 2016, SKY NEWS PROJECTED THE
words “IN OR OUT” across the top of a London building as an
orchestral score ratcheted up the tension. “In or out—it is too
late to change your mind,” declared Adam Boulton, the vet-
eran anchor, seated in a makeshift studio across from Big Ben.
“The polls have closed in the U.K.’s historic referendum on
EU membership.” Election nights are major productions for
British broadcasters, but Brexit was bigger, with Sky viewers
watching worldwide.
After the dramatic intro, Boulton jumped straight in with
an exclusive, announcing that he had “breaking news.” Nigel
Farage, the global face of the Brexit campaign, had given 37
Sky what sounded like a concession. His photo and a state-
ment filled the screen, as Sky’s political editor, Faisal Islam,
read Farage’s words aloud: “It’s been an extraordinary ref-
erendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high
and [it] looks like Remain will edge it. UKIP and I are going
nowhere, and the party will only continue to grow stronger
in the future.”
In the next segment, Boulton delivered another exclusive.
Joe Twyman, head of political research for YouGov, one of
the U.K.’s most prominent polling firms, appeared on set
with the results of an online exit poll conducted for Sky. He
explained that the firm had been tracking a group of roughly
5,000 voters—and they had moved further into the Remain
camp that day. Based on that, Twyman said, “We now expect
that the United Kingdom will remain part of the European
Union. It’s 52 percent Remain, 48 percent Leave, so it’s still
close and it’s still too early to know definitely—but, based on
the figures that we’re seeing, based on the trends that have
occurred, and based on historical precedent—we think that
Remain are in the strongest position.”
Just four minutes after the polls had closed, and with
meaningful vote counts still more than two hours away, Sky
had aired a concession from the world’s most prominent
Brexit backer, buttressed by data from YouGov. In a few
hours these “scoops” would prove spectacularly wrong, but
in the meantime they spawned worldwide headlines. This
one, which ran atop the U.K.’s leading news site, the Mail
Online, was typical. Referring to Farage’s UK Independence
Party, it read: