Page 76 - HBR's 10 Must Reads 20180 - The Definitive Management Ideas of the Year from Harvard Business Review

RIGHT TECH, WRONG TIME

How fast does new technology replace the old?
Traditionally the substitution of a new technology for an old one is shown with
two S curves (the solid lines). A more holistic view adds two more dynamics.
First, if the new technology depends on the emergence of a new ecosystem,
it becomes dominant more slowly (dotted line). Second, the old technology’s
competitiveness is extended if it can benefit from performance improvements
in its surrounding ecosystem (dashed line).
New
technology

B

D

Performance A
C

Old
technology

Time
Creative Robust Illusion of Robust
destruction coexistence resilience resilience
Point A Point B Point C Point D
The classic— If the new technol- If the new technol- If the new technol-
and fastest— ogy is compatible ogy’s ecosystem ogy’s ecosystem
substitution takes with the existing needs considerable needs considerable
place when the new ecosystem and the development and development and
technology’s eco- old technology’s the old technol- there are abundant
system is ready to ecosystem can be ogy’s ecosystem opportunities to
go and the old tech- significantly im- has little room for improve the old tech-
nology’s ecosystem proved, substitution improvement, the nology’s ecosystem,
can’t be significant- takes place later changeover occurs the substitution oc-
ly improved. (relative to creative after time has curs after the longest
destruction) and at passed without per- period of time and at
a higher perfor- formance gains. the highest perfor-
mance level. mance level.

Note: The exact positions of B and C will depend on the specifics of the case, but they will reflect an inter-
mediate pace of substitution (relative to points A and D) and intermediate performance at substitution.

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