Page 79 - HBR's 10 Must Reads 20180 - The Definitive Management Ideas of the Year from Harvard Business Review

ADNER AND KAPOOR

supports it. The greater the ecosystem-emergence challenge
for the new technology, the more time you have to strengthen
your own performance.
• Strengthening incumbent performance may mean improving
the old technology—but it can just as easily mean improving
aspects of the ecosystem that supports it.

• Every time the old technology’s performance gets better, the
performance threshold for the new technology goes up.

With that overview in mind, let’s look at how to use this frame-
work to analyze your own technology strategy. We recommend
having executive conversations focused on two questions: Which
quadrant is our industry in? and What are the implications for our
resource allocation and other strategic choices?

Which quadrant are we in?
Without the benefit of hindsight, your response to this question is
clearly a matter of judgment. Some people would look at electric ve-
hicles in 2016 and say they are still stuck in quadrant 4 (where we
have placed them in our framework), pointing out that the charging
infrastructure and battery performance are insufficient for main-
stream adoption. Other people would position EVs on the cusp of
quadrant 2, claiming that acceptance is growing and that better bat-
teries make it possible to drive longer distances before recharging.
Still others would place EVs solidly in quadrant 2, arguing that Tes-
la’s success in selling its vehicles and populating its waiting lists is a
sure sign that commercial potential is no longer constrained.
The sidebar “How Big a Threat Is the New Technology?” sug-
gests issues to think through as you debate which quadrant you’re
in. Some questions pertain to the new technology and some to the
old—but you will want to consider them all, regardless of whether
you are an incumbent or a start-up. Don’t expect all individual team
members to agree on the answers to these questions. It is precisely
by going through the process of articulating different views that
teams can make the most of their collective insights.

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