Page 16 - Bloomberg Businessweek - November 19, 2018

Bloomberg Businessweek The Year Ahead 2019 Introduction

The world economy will be out of sync in 2019. The U.S. is likely to expand faster than all but a few other wealthy
nations. Europe will be troubled by Brexit and Italy’s budget deficits. In the developing world, China, pressured
by its trade war with the U.S., will once again post slower growth than India. Hat tip to Bloomberg Economics, the
source of the economic growth rate forecasts on these pages.

Percentage-point difference between
2019 growth forecast and 2018 estimate ▷ 1

India*
$3t

⑨
Peru ▲ Growth accelerating
$0.2t 0

Philippines China ▼ Growth decelerating
Thailand Indonesia $0.4t
$0.5t
$1.1t $14.2t

9
Malaysia
$0.4t ⑩

-1

⑥ On March 29 ⑦ Right-winger ⑧ The U.S. ⑨ In Indonesia, ⑩ A trade war Indian
the U.K. is Jair Bolsonaro is again the President Joko with the U.S. will Prime Minister
scheduled to becomes engine of world Widodo will seek inhibit Chinese Narendra Modi
leave the EU. president economic a second term. export growth in is pressing the
Many aspects of of Brazil on growth. If its Interest-rate 2019. President central bank to
the withdrawal Jan. 1. His expansion hikes haven’t Xi Jinping is ease monetary
remain in agenda: cutting continues past derailed growth. trying to defuse policy ahead of
contention, taxes, selling June, as is the conflict while 2019 elections.
so chaos is a state-owned expected, it will increasing fiscal
possibility. companies, and become the stimulus—and -2 ABE: KIYOSHI OTA/REUTERS; MERKEL: MARTTI KAINULAINEN/ LEHTIKUVA/REUTERS; WIDODO: DARREN WHITESIDE/REUTERS; XI: ALY SONG/AP PHOTO
reining in the country’s longest could soft-pedal *INDIA 2018 FIGURE USED TO FORECAST 2019 ACCELERATION IS FROM APRIL 2018 TO MARCH 2019; DATA: IMF, BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS;
pension-system on record. efforts to reduce
deficit—but not indebtedness.
immediately
raising the
retirement age.

4% 6% 8%