Page 97 - Bloomberg Businessweek - November 19, 2018

Bloomberg Businessweek The Year Ahead 2019 Politics
Modi

▷ When in peril, India’s prime minister tends to stoke religious tensions

The political mood in India has darkened sig- Hindu mobs reacted to an attack on religious pil-
nificantly as Prime Minister Narendra Modi grims by killing an estimated 1,000 people, mostly
gears up for reelection in 2019. While the rest of Muslims. Modi was accused of failing to promptly
the world perceives Modi as a polite statesman, stop the violence, and although a Supreme Court
he and his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata investigation cleared him of official responsibility,
party aren’t afraid to play gutter politics to win he never apologized.
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at home. In Indian politics, and particularly for The BJP has seized on religious issues to
the BJP, that means appealing to the sensibili- galvanize voters this election cycle, including the
ties of the Hindu majority. building of a Hindu temple on top of a partially
Modi and the BJP won their majority in 2014 by destroyed mosque. Incidents of communal vio-
selling millions of poor Indians on the dream of lence have risen 28 percent during Modi’s time
a more prosperous future. But the party is head- in office to 822 incidents in 2017, although that’s
ing to the polls in the spring as rising oil prices below a peak in 2008, before he was elected.
push the rupee to record lows and job growth Economist Rupa Subramanya analyzed reports
remains weak. At the same time, the opposition of mob attacks, including Hindu radical assaults
Congress party, led by Rahul Gandhi, is cobbling on Muslim dairy farmers carried out in the name
alliances with regional parties, narrowing the of protecting sacred cows. She found that lynch-
BJP’s lead. Given a recent spate of religiously ings had become more frequent under Modi.
motivated vigilante and mob killings, the Election When things got tough during a close elec-
Commission and Supreme Court have both tion in Gujarat in late 2017, Modi accused former
expressed fears about potential violence. Indian Premier Manmohan Singh of scheming
“Nationalism is going to be an integral part of with Pakistan to swing the vote. But unless he’s
the BJP’s campaign,” says Milan Vaishnav, South on the ropes, the prime minister usually leaves
Asia director at the Carnegie Endowment for the strident comments to others. During the
International Peace. “While violence is really not 2014 campaign, the Election Commission cen-
in the interests of either side, it is possible that sured his close aide Amit Shah for calling on ● Modi faces
inflammatory rhetoric could get out of control.” Hindus to get “revenge” on Muslims by voting reelection in 2019
G.V.L. Narasimha Rao, a BJP spokesman, says iso- for the BJP. He was later promoted to party presi-
lated religious attacks are unfortunate but not dent. More recently, Shah compared Bangladeshi
unique to the BJP’s time in power. “A few inci- Muslim migrants to “termites.” Modi almost never FROM LEFT: KIYOSHI OTA/AP PHOTO; VINCENT THIAN/AP PHOTO
dents do not make India intolerant,” he says. rebukes party members for such behavior, leaving
Since the riots that accompanied the partition the impression he condones it. He needs at least
of British India in 1947, thousands have been killed to appear premier-like, says Pratyush Rao, lead
in conflicts among religious communities. During analyst for India at security consultancy Control
Modi’s tenure as chief minister of Gujarat in 2002, Risks: “The world is watching.” <BW> �Iain Marlow