Page 5 - 22 Cotton SA May 2020

TEXTILE SCENE

OUTLOOK ON

TEXTILES

by Helena Claassens, Cotton SA

CHINA’S LOOMING CRISIS – population growth, leading to a reduction in
A SHRINKING POPULATION? the size of the total Chinese population.
China is the largest cotton-producing country According to a recent article in the New
in the world (more than 20% of the world’s York Times, a decline in the birth rate and an
production), with nearly 300 million people increase in life expectancy mean there will soon
involved in cotton production. Cotton is an be too few workers available to support an
important cash crop in China. During the enormous and ageing population. The looming
2018/19 season China produced about demographic crisis could have a negative
5,9 million tonnes of cotton, while its usage impact on China’s economic transformation
is estimated at around 41,5 million bales that has taken place over the past 40 years.
(approximately 8 300 million tonnes). A decline in the working-age population
The textile industry in China is the largest could also slow consumer spending and thus
in the world, both in production and exports. have an impact on the economy of China in the
Cotton is an important raw material in the textile future. Production capacity could reduce due to
industry. The cotton textile sector is the largest a decline in employment.
sector and employs over 10 million workers. However, the possible effect in the decline of
During November 2019, approximately 4,2 the Chinese population will not happen overnight
billion metres of fabric for the make of garments and will only be visible in a generation or two
have been produced in China. in the future. Should this happen, production
Being a major part of the textile industry, of textile goods in China could decline, with a
clothing manufacturing with its labour-intensive subsequent decline in exports, and particularly
production processes, traditionally makes out in cotton manufactured exports. The hope is
a large part of China’s national employment that this might boost local production of cotton
figures. Currently, China’s population is said to textiles.
be around 1,43 billion people. How would this affect the South African
For years, China’s ruling Communist Party textile industry? In the short term, imports of
implemented a series of policies intended to clothing may stay stable, and the long-term
slow down the population growth of the world’s effect remains to be seen. In the context of
most populous nation. According to one of the China, South Africa makes out a very small
policies, couples could only have one child. portion of the export market, while textile
The long-term effect of this policy means that products from China will continue to flood the
the country will soon enter an era of negative African continent.

Volume 22 No 2 May 2020 | 5