Page 319 - Arabia the Gulf and the West

Arabia, the Gulf and the West

in the Gulf shaikhdoms, there is a sizable native Shii community in Hasa,
which for generations has suffered disabilities under Saudi rule. While the
shah still reigned, some kind of understanding was said to exist between Persia
and Saudi Arabia for the maintenance of peace in the Gulf and the suppression
of political elements hostile to the prevailing political order. It would have been
exceedingly strange if any such accord had existed, for the two countries were
more divided by their differences - religious, racial, cultural, historical and
political - than they were superficially united by a shared anxiety to uphold the
monarchical principle of government. The shah never bothered overmuch to

conceal his contempt for the Saudi ruling house, whom he regarded as back­
ward Bedouin and religious fanatics; while the Al Saud in their turn looked
upon him as a coxcomb and an upstart, and upon the Persian Shia as little
better than mushrikun, polytheists.
The establishment of any kind of theocratic government in Tehran would
obviously strengthen the mutual Sunni—Shii antipathy already present in the
Gulf region. Nor would the effect be any different if a radical or even Marxist
regime were to gain power in Persia. On the contrary, as recent events in Persia
have indicated, such a regime would not scruple to exploit Shii zealotry to
promote subversion in the Arab states of the Gulf, directed, in the first
instance, against the existing shaikhly regimes. What is more in doubt, what­
ever the political complexion of the successor government in Tehran, is
whether the Persian armed forces, after their demoralization and partial dis­
integration at the time of the shah’s downfall, would be capable of undertaking
offensive operations. On the other hand, if the new rulers of Persia were of
radical persuasion, they might choose to accomplish their ends in the Gulf, not
by conventional military means but by the tactics of guerrilla warfare and
popular sedition. Amid all the uncertainties about Persia’s future rule in the
Gulf, however, one thing is clear, and this is that her actions will be strongly,
perhaps decisively, influenced by the relationship of her new rulers with the

Soviet Union.
The Russians have played a careful game in Persia these last two decades or
so, with the result that Russo-Persian relations have pursued a fairly tranquil
course. A number of economic agreements were concluded between the two
countries in the mid-1960s, revolving mainly around the sale of natural gas by
Persia to Russia and the provision of technical and economic assistance by the
Russians in the development of Persian industry, the most important contribu­
tion being the construction of the Aryamehr steel mill at Ispahan. A further
economic convention was concluded in 1976, providing for the export oi
industrial goods from Russia to Persia over a five-year period, in exchange for
gas, minerals and textiles. A minor arms agreement was negotiated m 196 -7
for the supply of Russian anti-aircraft guns and military transport, though e
Russians refused a request for surface-to-air missiles for the defencei of Persia s
oil installations, presumably out of deference to the feelings of their ch